Skip to main content

Fiorentina v Dynamo Kiev: Off-colour hosts shouldn't be so short for semi spot

Thursday April 23, 20:05
Live on ITV 4

Dynamo Kiev were desperately close to claiming a first-leg advantage last week, before Khouma Babacar's stoppage-time strike forced a 1-1 draw in Ukraine. Heartbreaking for Dynamo, and for me, as I'd tipped the home win. It's lucky I don't have a cat to kick.
However, I believe there's a chance for revenge in Florence. Although Fiorentina's late equaliser was fully deserved, as La Viola had put on plenty of late pressure, I think this tie is still much tighter than the market is suggesting.
Fiorentina are a prohibitively short 1.41 in the To Qualify market, and that could partially be based on the fact Dynamo have lost both of their away games in the knockout rounds. While I can understand that logic, this time Dynamo have something to chase, and the fact they haven't drawn a blank in an away game since October leads me to believe they can score at least one away goal.
In the Coppa Italia recently, Fiorentina secured a first-leg win against Juventus in Turin, only to blow it with a 3-0 second-leg reverse at home. Since then they have been bashed 3-0 at Napoli and lost 1-0 at home to lowly Hellas Verona in Serie A.
In theory Fiorentina could sneak through with a goalless draw, but Vincenzo Montella's men aren't that type of team, and they have kept just three clean sheets in their last 15 outings at the Artemio Franchi. Dynamo have dangerous attacking players like Andriy Yarmolenko and Artem Kravets, who scored twice in the weekend's 3-1 win at Volyn, and I think they can cause Fiorentina's defence a few problems.
Last week's Fiorentina hero Babacar is out for the rest of the campaign and there's an injury doubt over midfielder David Pizarro, while Dynamo are without suspended defender Aleksandar Dragovic and probably injured midfielder Miguel Veloso.
I've admittedly had a mixed record with Fiorentina in this competition, successfully backing them to qualify against Roma, but wrongly opposing them against Spurs. This time I think the two sides are evenly matched, and Fiorentina's recent form (especially that collapse against a weakened Juventus) simply doesn't justify that 1.41 price to reach the semis.
Given Dynamo's attacking potential and the fact Fiorentina have a leaky defence, I also wouldn't put you off backing Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.91.
Recommended Bet

Back Dynamo Kiev to qualify at 3.30

Popular posts from this blog

Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund: Eagles to build a wall in Berlin

Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund Saturday 27 May, 19:00 Live on BT Sport ESPN Eintracht Frankfurt This time last season, Eintracht Frankfurt were  fighting for survival  in a Bundesliga playoff against second-tier side Nurnberg. Fast forward a year, and they are preparing for their first major cup final since 2006, having finished well clear of relegation trouble this term. Having steered the Eagles through that playoff against Nurnberg, coach  Niko Kovac  set about galvanising not just the squad, but the entire club. Working with sporting director Bruno Hubner and former Germany striker Fredi Bobic,  Kovac has injected new life into an organisation that was drifting. Youngsters like defender  Jesus Vallejo  and forward Ante Rebic have been brought in on loan to good effect, and astute pickups like holding midfielder Omar Mascarell and forward Branimir Hrgota have become effective cogs in the machine. Although Frankfurt have twice...

Goals in Confederations Cup : Spain vs Uruguay 2-1

Tottenham’s Dele Alli eyes Premier League debut at Manchester United

It was quite the opening statement. Dele Alli, 24 minutes into his first start in a Tottenham Hotspur shirt, suckered in Luka Modric of Real Madrid, nutmegged him and accelerated away. The 70,000 sell-out crowd at Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena roared at the 19-year-old’s sheer impudence. "We had a laugh about it in the tunnel afterwards; he was very good about it,” Alli said. "He shook my hand and said to me: ‘You little bugger’ – or something like that. I didn’t shout ‘nuts’ when I did it. I used to do that when I was young and get told off for it." As Alli spoke at the Allianz after Tuesday’s 2-0 Audi Cup victory, some of Real’s galácticos filed past. This time last year the midfielder was preparing for MK Dons’ League One season opener against Gillingham. His previous competitive game was for MK against Yeovil in May. Alli says “unreal” and “surreal” on a number of occasions and it is little wonder. This is a young player of conviction. If the nutmeg on one of...