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Showing posts from October, 2015

Saturday Premier League Tips

Crystal Palace 3.90 v Man Utd 2.14 ; The Draw 3.60 I've opposed Manchester United twice this season, at Southampton and Everton where they ran out impressive victors. Those two results should tell me that they ought to beat a Crystal Palace side that can just about be classed as on a poor run of form . The Eagles sit seventh in the table but they've just lost back-to-back league games and were thrashed in the Capital One Cup at Man City in midweek, meaning they've now lost five of their last eight outings. Palace's problem appears to be in front of goal. From their opening five fixtures Alan Pardew 's men scored in each game, and netted a total of 12 times. In their recent run of poor form they failed to score in three of their six league matches and found the back of the net just four times. I'm still far from convinced about Louis van Gaal 's United side however. Those wins I alluded to earlier obviously suggest they can be great on their ...

Bundesliga Betting: Stevens can get Hoff to a flying start

FC Cologne v Hoffenheim Saturday October 31, 14:30 Even in the relatively sensible and measured arena that is the Bundesliga, some wild decisions and unconventional thinking can emerge. After last Friday's 1-0 home defeat to Hamburg, a result that left Hoffenheim in the automatic relegation zone, coach Markus Gisdol was given his marching orders after two-and-a-half years in charge. Although sporting director Alexander Rosen insists Hoffenheim gave Gisdol plenty of support and time to turn things around, the decision seems hasty to me. The club's best player - Roberto Firmino - was sold to Liverpool, and there was a big turnover of playing personnel in the summer. I think Gisdol might've rescued the situation in the next few weeks, but now we'll never know. Hoffenheim have replaced Gisdol with the Red Adair of the Bundesliga, Dutch veteran Huub Stevens. The 61-year-old was parachuted in twice by Stuttgart in the last two seasons to rescue them from the...

Chelsea v Liverpool: Mourinho's last hurrah

Chelsea v Liverpool Saturday, 12:45 Live on BT Sport 1 Chelsea Jose Mourinho's post-match rhetoric is becoming increasingly desperate. Tuesday night's suggestion that the Blues' performance in a penalty shoot-out defeat to Stoke made critics look stupid, after they only equalised in the last minute of normal time and played the whole of extra time against 10 men but couldn't score, was the latest in a long line of deflection tactics that onlookers are no longer willing to buy. Chelsea are in crisis, and Mourinho looks every bit the mad man steering a sinking ship further towards their nadir. The Blues now have just one win in their last seven matches in all competitions and, other than the win over Arsenal where they were significantly aided by Gabriel's controversial red card, they've only beaten bottom-of-the table Aston Villa, League One Walsall and Israeli side Maccabi Tel Aviv since August. Team News: Cesc Fabregas was dropped for th...

Capital One Cup Tips: The Middlesbrough special awaits Man United

All matches kick-off on Wednesday at 19:45 unless stated Man City 1.41 v Crystal Palace 8.80 ; The Draw 5.50 As Aston Villa, Wigan, Newcastle and Middlesbrough will attest, Man City are susceptible to the occasional home cup shocker, but Crystal Palace are unlikely to join that odd-defying gang. The Eagles have lost eight of their past nine meetings with the Premier League leaders and five in a row in Manchester and, whereas they were an unpredictable team last season, claiming 80% more points at home to the top six than the bottom six, they play to form this term, winning five in five against sides below them and losing five in five against those below. Manuel Pellegrini's men obtained a first clean sheet in nine at the weekend. The previous came against Palace and the next should too: the Londoners have fired five blanks in six against them and were shut out in both of their road reverses to date in 2015/16. Recommended Bet: Back Man City to win to nil @ 2.60 ...

Capital One Cup Tips: Chelsea and Everton to revisit weekend traits

All matches are on Tuesday night and kick-off at 19:45 Everton 1.77 v Norwich 5.30 ; The Draw 4.00 It might seem like the ideal time to face Norwich now that their bright reintroduction to the Premier League has made way for three successive defeats, but Everton's home form is also dreary, and will no longer be masked by their away progress following their first road reverse at Arsenal on Saturday. The Toffees' 3-1 win over Chelsea was their standalone success in seven dating back to May, and there hasn't been a single clean sheet kept in that sequence. That works out perfectly for Alex Neil, whose side's sole blank on their travels since February came when reduced to ten men after 31 minutes at Southampton. All four games involving these clubs in the Capital One Cup this season went over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in five of Everton's six Goodison Park ties in the competition this decade, the exception being a 5-0 dismissal of Leyton Or...

Ligue 1 Betting: Lyon set to bounce back from Champions League misery

Lyon v Toulouse (6th v 17th) Fri, 19:30 BST Live on BT Sport 2 Lyon's Champions League campaign is predictably turning into a disaster but they ought to be good enough to win this weekend. Hubert Fournier's young squad never looked good enough to make an impact on the continental stage but they remain one of Ligue 1's better sides when they get their act together. This game on Friday night is an excellent chance to bounce back from their 3-1 defeat at Zenit St Petersburg on Tuesday as they face a very poor Toulouse side. The visitors' only win of the season came on the opening day and they owed that to big mistakes by St Etienne goalkeeper Stephane Ruffier (2-1). Since then Toulouse's record is W0-D5-L4 and their manager Dominique Arribage has admitted they are facing a relegation battle this season. A fall-out between star striker Wissam Ben Yedder and the club's powers-that-be over Toulouse's refusal to let the player join Marseille on ...

Saturday Championship Tipsheet: Back in-form Brum to shock the Tigers

Hull 1.80 v Birmingham 5.30 ; The Draw 3.50 To emphasise how difficult wagering in the Championship is proving to be this season, out of all 24 teams playing this weekend the one priced biggest of all - and therefore rated as the most likely team to lose - is Birmingham City. The significant thing about this is that Brum are the Championship's most in-form side! Gary Rowett 's men sit second in the table following four straight victories, three of them without conceding a single goal. And anyone who has read this column regularly for the last few seasons will know that Birmingham away from home have been a fantastic betting proposition . The early signs are that backing Rowett's men away from home is going to prove highly profitable again this time around. Brum are unbeaten on the road in the league this season, winning four and drawing two, yet they seem to be improving even further, winning their last three away games all without conceding. Of course, a...

Serie A Betting: Expect fireworks when the top two clash in Florence

Fiorentina v Roma Sunday, 17:00 Live on BT Sport 1 It's the turn of the new top two this weekend, as Fiorentina play Roma with only one point separating them. La Viola were beaten in Naples, and know that if they lose at home against Roma, they'll give up top spot and potentially lose momentum in the Scudetto race. Roma were involved in a Champions League classic in midweek, a 4-4 draw with Bayer Leverkusen that will linger long in the memory, and a match that summed up all that is good and bad about Rudi Garcia's teams: always scintillating going forward, occasionally shambolic at the back. Given Fiorentina's recent performances, I'm heading down the same route here that I did at the San Paolo last week. We were unfortunate to see Over 3.5 goals as a loser in Napoli against Fiorentina, but that must be the bet again here. For all that they are capable of defending well, Fiorentina's last three League games have produced five, three and three ...

Liverpool v Rubin Kazan: Wave of Klopp-timism can yield a win

Liverpool v Rubin Kazan Thursday October 22, 20:05 Live on BT Sport 2 At the football cathedral that is Anfield, the congregation waits for its new spiritual leader to give his first sporting sermon. Newly-installed Reds boss Jurgen Klopp is already being revered as a saviour, and by his own admission, he is yet to do anything to justify such adulation. The way Klopp has been embraced by Liverpool fans speaks to his charisma, but also to how desperate Reds supporters were to see a change after Brendan Rodgers' tenure ground to a shuddering halt. The weekend's goalless draw at Spurs, which was the German coach's first game in charge, featured some encouraging signs. The full-throttle pressing that Klopp routinely demanded at Borussia Dortmund was in evidence, but Liverpool's untidy work when in possession shows there is a long road ahead. As Klopp well knows, running and fighting is important, but composure is also vital. Without the injured Daniel Stur...

Europa League Betting: Bungling Bavarians set for another defeat

AZ Alkmaar v Augsburg Thursday October 22, 18:00 Live on BT Sport Extra We've already profited twice in this column from opposing Augsburg, and I suspect their struggles will continue on Thursday evening. The Bavarians exceeded all expectations last season as they finished fifth in the Bundesliga, but a collective loss of confidence and a thin squad have contributed to a dismal campaign so far. Saturday's 2-0 home defeat to newly-promoted Darmstadt saw Augsburg sink to the foot of the Bundesliga, and they have won just one of their first nine matches. To make matters worse, the club's first ever European campaign is shaping up to be a disaster. Despite taking the lead in Bilbao they were eventually swept aside 3-1 by Athletic, and their maiden home game in continental competition ended in a 3-1 reverse against Partizan Belgrade. Given how badly the team is struggling, I'm amazed that Augsburg are favourites to win against AZ in the Netherlands. Keeper Ma...

Dinamo Kiev v Chelsea: Costa to cut down Kiev

Dinamo Kiev v Chelsea Tuesday October 20, 19:45 BST Live on BT Sport 2 Dinamo Kiev A late equaliser against Porto in the opening gameweek followed by a 2-0 win at Maccabi Tel Aviv has put Dinamo Kiev in a decent position at the top of Group G . There is still a long way to go though and with a trip to both Portugal and England to come, I am not convinced that they will qualify for the last 16. The man in charge at the Olympic Stadium is club legend, Serhiy Rebrov , a man who helped Kiev rise to prominence in the mid to late 90s. He will have been disappointed with his team's performance on Friday night though as they were soundly beaten by Shakhtar Donetsk in front of their own fans. Chelsea The international break probably came at the right time for Chelsea as they needed time to pause following the disastrous start to the season that culminated in the 3-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge to Southampton. Jose Mourinho's side picked back up...

Man City v Sevilla: Etihad Stadium's clean sheet-proofing to continue

Man City 1.69 v Sevilla 5.60 ; The Draw 4.30 Wednesday, 19:45 Live on BT Sport 2 Man City There was a lot of "here we go again" sentiment after Manchester City lost their Group D opener at home to Juventus, but a 2-1 victory at Borussia Monchengladbach invites more positive reflection on their recent Champions League escapades. They have cleared their group in successive campaigns, being eliminated by the mighty Barcelona both times, and have won three of their last four fixtures at this stage - all against Bundesliga or Serie A giants - only dropping points to the team narrowly beaten in the final four months ago. It may take just two wins from their remaining four games to complete a hat-trick of round-of-16 appearances under Manuel Pellegrini, though to claim the first against Sevilla, they must brush off injuries to Aleksandar Kolarov, Gael Clichy, Fabian Delph, David Silva and Sergio Aguero. Samir Nasri is also a doubt. Sevilla Perhaps deterred by ...

CSKA Moscow v Man United: Guests to confirm Everton was no fluke

CSKA Moscow 3.00 v Man United 2.60 ; The Draw 3.50 Wednesday, 19:45 Live on BT Sport Europe CSKA Moscow Manchester United will be under no illusions as to the challenge that they face at Arena Khimki after witnessing CSKA Moscow sprint into a 3-0 lead within 36 minutes at home to their matchday-one conquerors PSV three weeks ago. They are absolutely bossing the Russian Premier League too, with ten wins and two draws from their opening 12 fixtures putting them five points above second-placed Lokomotiv Moscow and at least ten clear of everybody else. Man United The international break appeared to arrive at an ideal time for the Red Devils. They went from being outclassed 3-0 by Arsenal side to prevailing 3-0 against Everton at recent bogey ground Goodison Park in one of their most celebrated performances since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. That backdrop makes this one of the most intriguing games of the last 30 months, an opportunity to discover whether that Merseyside ...

Midweek Championship Tipsheet: Classy Rams to batter Rovers

Rotherham 3.70 v Reading 2.20 ; The Draw 3.50 Tuesday, 19:45 At the start of the season I fully agreed with the Betfair market that had Rotherham as strong favourites for relegation , and not much I've seen since has forced me to change my mind. True, the Millers have changed their manager with Neil Redfearn replacing the outgoing Steve Evans, and that can sometimes make a difference. In fact the 'new manager effect' was the reason I backed Rotherham at the weekend away to fellow strugglers Brentford. But it wasn't to be for Redfearn's men, despite playing quite well and registering more shots at goal than the hosts they went down 2-1. There was enough in that performance to encourage the new boss undoubtedly, but the visit of red hot Reading on Tuesday night is unlikely to yield Redfearn's first win in charge of his new club. Quite the opposite in fact. The Royals are flying at the moment and on Saturday moved up to second place in the table aft...