Bosnia-Herzegovina v Wales
Saturday 10th October, 19:45 (BST)
Live on Sky Sports 2
Saturday 10th October, 19:45 (BST)
Live on Sky Sports 2
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bosnia have recovered well from a start that yielded just two points from their opening four Euro 2016 qualification matches to at least put themselves in contention for a play-off spot. Mehmed Baždarević's men now have 11 points on the board and are just two behind third-place Israel.
Recent qualification wins against Andorra home and away and against Israel in Zenica means that The Dragons have now lost only one - away to Belgium - of their last five fixtures.
Edin Dzeko has seven goals in qualification so far - only Thomas Müller and Robert Lewandowski have scored more - six of which have come in the last four games.
Team News: There are major concerns about the availability of Dzeko who stayed on in Rome this week to work with his fitness coach, although Baždarević insists he will play. Senad Lulic has been passed fit to play following some concerns but Muhamed Besic is suspended.
Wales
The Welsh party was put on ice when they were held to a goalless draw by Israel a month go - a win would have secured qualification - but when you've been waiting since 1958 for a major finals appearance, what's another few weeks?
Chris Coleman's men, now ranked at an all-time high of eight in the FIFA rankings, need just one point from their remaining two games to guarantee progress to next summer's championships. And with a home game against minnows Andorra on Tuesday the Welsh can approach this game in the knowledge that regardless of the result here they should, barring a catastrophe, get the requisite point very soon.
Gareth Bale has six of Wales' nine goals in qualification so far, no other player has scored more than once.
Team News: Bale suffered no ill effects from a recent calf injury when featuring for the final 25 minutes of the Madrid derby and has therefore been cleared to play this Saturday.
Match Odds
I was somewhat surprised to open the Match Odds market and find the hosts priced at odds of 2.00 while Wales are as big as 4.60. Although I'm not for one minute suggesting that the FIFA rankings are gospel, I wouldn't expect such generous odds for any other team in the top 10 up against a side ranked in the thirties. Wales continue to be underestimated by punters.
And so it is with no hesitation that I advise a large bet on opposing Bosnia-Herzegovina. The only thing stopping me short of advising an outright bet on the Welsh to win is the fact that they do not need all three points and will likely settle for a draw if the game is level approaching the final stages.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Five of Bosnia's last six matches have produced more than 2.5 goals, while only one of Wales' last five have had more than a single goal. Which presents us with something of a quandary here.
The Welsh have also kept five consecutive clean sheets and conceded only twice in qualification so far - the second lowest total (behind only Romania) of all 48 teams attempting to reach the Euro 2016 finals.
Because Wales only need a point and their defensive record suggests a 0-0 draw is the most likely way for them to achieve that, Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.80 is the only bet to be had here.
Correct Score
There's not a lot more to be said about this selection that hasn't been mentioned above, other than that it would be folly to not at least have a few quid on the 0-0 score at a relatively generous 10.00. Wales have played out three goalless draws already in this campaign; one more will be mission complete.
Recommended Bets
4pts Lay Bosnia-Herzegovina to win @ 2.00
