Everton v Man Utd
Saturday, 15:00
Arsenal's 3-0 victory a fortnight ago was in part due to the sluggishness and disorganisation of United's midfield. Michael Carrick and Schweinsteiger were too slow for such a high tempo match, and failed to synchronise effectively; at times the two players could be found stood in a line, at others leaving 30 yards between each other. A very similar situation occurred against Wolfsburg four days earlier, but United's 2-1 victory hid the problem from the media's glare.
Roberto Martinez is a fastidious tactician who tweaks his strategy to exploit opponents' deficits, but this week Everton's usual trick - charging through the middle via Barkley and Lukaku - will suffice. 30% of Everton's attacks come through the centre of the pitch (fourth highest in division), and 49.6% of their key passes are from central zones (compared with 16.9% from the left flank and 30.9% from the right flank).
Everton are at their most lethal when gaining possession within the opponents' half and bursting towards goal with the counter-attacking power of Barkley and Lukaku, who have scored or assisted 10 of their 12 league goals to date. Since it is likely that large gaps will persist in United's midfield, and van Gaal's team are dispossessed 15.8 times per match (most in the division), it seems plausible that Everton will give Schweinsteiger yet another awkward afternoon.
Recommended Bet
Back Everton to win at 9/4
Chelsea v Villa
Saturday, 15:00
While the media have fixated on Jose Mourinho's crumbling dynasty at Stamford Bridge, Tim Sherwood's Aston Villa have gradually sunk into the mire and, almost unnoticed, are now deep in crisis; the Villa board have reportedly given Sherwood two matches to save his job.
As Villa's confidence shrinks they are increasingly reverting to long ball football, but this may prove a useful tactic against Chelsea; Villa have won more aerial duels (22.4 per match) than any other club, with Rudy Gestede second in the table behind Christian Benteke (6.5 aerials won per match). Meanwhile, Chelsea have looked vulnerable in recent weeks in this area. Porto opened the scoring in their 2-1 victory with a headed goal from a corner, and Southampton equalised in Chelsea's last match via a Grazianno Pelle knock-down.
In order for Villa to exploit their aerial advantage, however, they must first outmanoeuvre Chelsea's midfield. Finally giving up on the woefully frail Fabregas/Matic partnership, Mourinho has found both Ramires and John Obi Mikel to be inadequate replacements. It is now widely expected that Ruben Loftus Cheek will be given a chance to impress.
Loftus-Cheek will be tasked with man-marking Villa's chief playmaker Jack Grealish. If Grealish can break free from his marker with regularity then the overlapping Jordan Amavi will be presented with opportunities to swing the ball into Villa's giant striker.
A lot rests on the head-to-head battle between these two exciting young English midfielders; the better performer could lead his team to victory, and may just trigger the departure of the opposing team's manager.
Recommended Bet
Back over 3.5 goals at 6/4
West Brom v Sunderland
Saturday, 15:00
The appointment of Sam Allardyce may not be the most exciting but his trademark brand of direct football may be perfectly suited to the personnel currently at Sunderland. A quick start seems vital for a side already deeply immersed in a relegation battle and a trip to West Brom, who have conceded eight goals in their last three games, is the ideal place to snatch three points.
There is a rugged simplicity to the individualised roles of Allardyce football. Whether managing a Jay-Jay Okocha led 4-2-3-1 at Bolton or an Andy Carroll focused 4-5-1 at West Ham, the basic formula has remained largely consistent: Allardyce relies upon a strong and feisty fulcrum in attack, tireless and defensive-minded central midfielders, and pace on the wings.
Even last season, when a diamond 4-4-2 led many to believe West Ham had evolved, they ended the campaign having made the 16th most short passes and winning the 5th most aerial duels. Fortunately for Allardyce, the Sunderland squad is already littered with powerful and highly specialised players.
Expect tireless figures like Jordi Gomez and Sebastian Larsson to flourish, and for Allardyce to perfectly understand how to give Adam Johnson and Jeremain Lens space to attack the full-backs directly (largely by using Steven Fletcher as a target man).
Lens will be of particular importance on Saturday, thanks to the increasing vulnerability of converted left-back Chris Brunt. Each of the last five goals West Brom have conceded have come via directness and trickery from opposition wingers (four crosses from out wide and a penalty earned by Yannick Bolasie). Managers are increasingly realising that Tony Pulis's slow defence can be cracked by direct speed in wide areas. Lens, averaging 1.8 dribbles and 1.3 key passes per match this season, could be the key to victory.
Recommended Bet
Back Sunderland to win at 10/3
Southampton v Leicester
Saturday, 15:00
The hoof-and-rush kamikaze football of Claudio Ranieri's Leicester has been a breath of fresh air in the Premier League, but as the 5-2 defeat to Arsenal indicated, their frantic end-to-end battles will not always end in a sweeping Leicester victory. Southampton's considerable counter-attacking threat could see them outscore their visitors.
Only three teams have conceded more than Leicester's 17, and seven of these goals have been from counter-attacks; as the strikers and wingers stream forward on the offensive Leicester's opponents regularly find enormous pockets of space between defence and midfield to exploit.
Ronald Koeman's Southampton rank third for accurate long passes, largely because they frequently aim long, diagonal balls towards their fulcrum Graziano Pelle when a counter-attacking opportunity arises.
More often than not it is Sadio Mane, tearing through the centre, who orchestrates these attacks after a calculated pass from the under-appreciated Steven Davis (43 passes, 2.1 key passes per match). It is easy to see why Leicester City's gung-ho approach could leave them vulnerable to Mane's bursts and Davis's excellent exploitation of space. Expect another high scoring game.
Recommended Bet
Back over 3.5 goals at 2/1
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Newcastle v Norwich @ 1.98
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
Two of the Premier League's worst defences are on display at St James' Park on Sunday and I can't resist a dabble on Over 2.5 Goals at nearly even money.
Steve McClaren's Newcastle shipped six goals last time out in the Premier League and their 17 conceded is the joint second-worst total in the top-flight, second only to neighbours Sunderland. It's been five games since they let in less than two goals in a match and tricky Norwich are the sort of side that could put this faltering unit under pressure.
The Canaries have been a reliable Overs bet throughout the season with six of their eight matches breaching the 2.5 line. Only Southampton have managed to blank Alex Neil's side and their ability to score on Sunday will come as a real worry to the home side who won't want the St James' Park crowd on their backs again. Their ability to concede (they're up to 14 already) is what makes the bet for me, however. Newcastle will see this as a chance to finally win a Premier League game.
But with no.1 Tim Krul out of the game the pressure will really be on reserve keeper Rob Elliott and I'm happy to be on Overs in Sunday's sole top-flight match.
Joe Dyer 2015-16 P/L: +£28.60
Back Everton @ 3.40 to beat Man Utd
Saturday, 15:00
Everton have won their last three home games against Manchester United and I rate them a great bet to make it four when the two sides meet on Saturday afternoon.
The Toffees are unbeaten in five league games, a sequence that included that very impressive win over Chelsea, and although the Blues have been way below par this season I actually don't believe Louis van Gaal's men are any better.
True, United have been picking up the points but they've barely played well all season and were ripped apart at Arsenal just before the international break. That was a very tough defeat and they'll do well to bounce back at a ground where they have a poor recent record.
As Michael Lintorn explains here, Everton have the best recent record in the Premier League in games immediately following an international break with just adds further confidence in a home win.
The return of John Stones is a big plus, and if the likes of Ross Barkley and Romalu Lukaku can continue their excellent early season form then I fully expect Everton to take all three points.
Mike Norman 2015-16 P/L: +£17.80
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Southampton v Leicester at 3.10
Saturday, 15:00
While I suspect that both Sam Allardyce and Jurgen Klopp will both get positive starts in their first games for their respective new clubs - the latter especially, given Tottenham's lack of fit midfielders - I am going to stay on safer ground and stick with the banker bet of the season so far: goals in a Leicester game.
There have been goals at both ends in every single one of the Foxes' games so far, with 24 scored in their previous six alone. Ronald Koeman's men have also offered up plenty of entertainment, with their last half dozen games seeing the net bulge 22 times.
Saints come into the game on a high, having dismantled Chelsea last time out, and I expect them to take the game to Claudio Ranieri's men, leaving space for the Foxes to counter, as they do so well.
I was surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals trading as high as 1.80 but I'll take my chances on another goals packed encounter and go for four or more to be scored at better than 2/1 on the Exchange.
Dan Thomas 2015-16 P/L: +-£4.80
Back Chelsea-1 to beat Aston Villa at 2.06
Saturday, 15:00
It has clearly been a disastrous start to the Premier League season for Chelsea by their own high standards, yet the defending champions would have benefited from an extended break and should be ready to go again against a truly poor Aston Villa side with a beleaguered manager.
Despite the difficult beginning to their season, there have been some bright spots as far as Chelsea are concerned - Willian, Cesar Azpilicueta and Asmir Begovic have all done well - and it's a chance for Jose Mourinho to tinker and bring some young players in, as he's intimated he may start to do so.
Regardless, Villa are dreadful at the moment and it's hard to see any way back for them under Tim Sherwood who is floundering and flip-flopping around in style and formation; it's the classic hallmark of a manager that knows he's had his chips. This game may not quite seal his fate, but I predict a fairly simple win for the Blues on Saturday.
