Saturday 17:30,
Live on Sky Sports 2
The season's first Clasico arrives with La Liga's table looking somewhat familiar - Barcelona top, Real three points behind. The winner of this game will end the weekend in first place - and with Spain's table decided by head-to-head results rather than goal difference, winning the Clasico has added importance.
System dilemmas for Benitez
This game comes at a difficult time for Real, who lost their first league game of the season last time out, away at Sevilla. Rafael Benitez welcomes back Karim Benzema, essentially his only established centre-forward, but that doesn't entirely explain precisely how Real will line up at the Bernabeu this weekend.
Benitez started the season playing a 4-2-3-1 system, essentially attempting to accommodate as many of his star players as possible. Gareth Bale often played in an unfamiliar number 10 role which only partly worked. When Benitez lost players to injury, however, he turned to a more rigid 4-3-3 system with Casemeiro coming into midfield behind Toni Kroos and Luka Modric, offering a more solid defensive presence.
Benitez's major decision, therefore, is about which system to play. The 4-3-3 seems most likely, because of the extra numbers in midfield against a team still capable of playing others off the pitch from that zone. Modric and Kroos together would surely be too risky against a side like Barca, and would risk leaving a hole in front of the defence.
Assuming Casemeiro plays in a 4-2-3-1, Benitez would then have to decide which two of Bale, Benzema, Cristiano Ronaldo, Isco and James Rodriguez to omit.
Bale and Ronaldo are surefire starters, and Benitez might take advantage of Benzema's uncertain level of fitness to play without an orthodox striker, probably with Isco joining Ronaldo and Bale. The decision might be about politics as much as tactics, however - and if Benitez uses the 4-2-3-1 instead, it's mainly to placate his star men and would risk the midfield being overrun.
Messi to return?
Luis Enrique doesn't have any decisions to make about his shape - as ever, it will be 4-3-3 - but he will be forced to take two key decisions about the fitness levels of two key players.
Most crucially, Leo Messi hasn't played since late September because of a knee injury, but has been back in full training and could start here. Barcelona tend to risk Messi in big games when he's half-fit, and even if not 100%, his presence will draw in opponents and give space to other key players.
In his absence, Luis Suarez and Neymar have been in quite sensational form, registering Barcelona's last 17 league goals and combining splendidly towards the left flank. Even if Messi plays, these two might be the greater goalscoring threat - Messi could play a little deeper as a playmaker rather than a forward, especially if he's lacking his usual burst of speed.
Barcelona's second injury worry is Ivan Rakitic. Again, it seems likely he'll start on the right of Barcelona's midfield three, helping Messi to combine with Dani Alves down the right.
If not, Luis Enrique could push Sergio Busquets into the slightly higher midfield role he's sometimes played this season, with Javier Mascherano the holding midfielder. Either way, it seems highly likely Barcelona will command possession.
Classic tactical battle
In that sense, this will probably be a classic Clasico tactical battle - Barcelona with the ball, Real remaining defensively compact before breaking quickly. Ronaldo against Alves is always a fascinating tactical battle, and while Ronaldo's defensive work rate is often questioned, it will be interesting to see how often Alves is brave enough to scamper down the touchline past him.
Bale might be an even greater counter-attacking weapon because he tends to receive the ball in deeper positions, and if playing centrally might be able to outwit Mascherano with his sheer pace.
There hasn't been a single clean sheet for either side in the last nine Clasicos, which explains why 0-0 is currently trading at around the [20.0] mark - there's sure to be goals here.
The two Spanish giants meet for the first El Clasico of the
season at the Bernabeu with Barcelona sitting proudly at the top of the
league three points ahead of Real Madrid.
This is Rafa Benitez's first El Clasico and, despite only losing once this season, the pressure is already piling on the manager, mainly due to his defensive approach which hasn’t suited the players - Cristiano Ronaldo especially - or the demanding fans at Madrid.
Benitez will be pleased to welcome four key players back into the squad, Marcelo, Keylor Navas, James Rodriguez and Karim Benzema, to boost the team which lost 3-2 against Seville last time out.
Luis Enrique faces his own dilemma - does he bring back Lionel Messi, who is back in training but will no doubt be rusty? One player that will certainly be back for them is Javier Mascherano who returns after serving a suspension.
If Madrid can win this game they will leapfrog Barcelona and take the top spot on goal difference, but defeat would leave them six points behind their arch rivals and a mountain to climb after only 12 games of the season.
In the last 10 El Clasicos there have only been two draws while nine of the games have seen both teams scoring, and nine with three goals or more. Of course the market is wise to these trends with Over 2.5 Goals trading at [1.56] and both teams to score at [1.49] neither of which are appealing.
I do though think that Real Madrid could be overpriced at around [2.6] - I had them nearer [2.25] - especially as draws don’t tend to feature much in these contests. I will be backing the hosts to win this at that price and will also be having a flutter in the correct score market on 2-1 Real Madrid @ [12.0].
This is Rafa Benitez's first El Clasico and, despite only losing once this season, the pressure is already piling on the manager, mainly due to his defensive approach which hasn’t suited the players - Cristiano Ronaldo especially - or the demanding fans at Madrid.
Benitez will be pleased to welcome four key players back into the squad, Marcelo, Keylor Navas, James Rodriguez and Karim Benzema, to boost the team which lost 3-2 against Seville last time out.
Luis Enrique faces his own dilemma - does he bring back Lionel Messi, who is back in training but will no doubt be rusty? One player that will certainly be back for them is Javier Mascherano who returns after serving a suspension.
If Madrid can win this game they will leapfrog Barcelona and take the top spot on goal difference, but defeat would leave them six points behind their arch rivals and a mountain to climb after only 12 games of the season.
In the last 10 El Clasicos there have only been two draws while nine of the games have seen both teams scoring, and nine with three goals or more. Of course the market is wise to these trends with Over 2.5 Goals trading at [1.56] and both teams to score at [1.49] neither of which are appealing.
I do though think that Real Madrid could be overpriced at around [2.6] - I had them nearer [2.25] - especially as draws don’t tend to feature much in these contests. I will be backing the hosts to win this at that price and will also be having a flutter in the correct score market on 2-1 Real Madrid @ [12.0].
