Republic of Ireland v Bosnia
Friday 19:45 & Monday 19:45
Live on Sky Sports
Friday 19:45 & Monday 19:45
Live on Sky Sports
Odds To Qualify: Rep of Ireland, 2.00 Bosnia 1.80
The Rep of Ireland players convene in Dublin today for seven days that will decide whether the first two years of Martin O'Neill's tenure are remembered as a success or a failure.
O'Neill was satisfied enough at the draw in Switzerland as he had identified Ukraine as the worst case scenario. Hungary were the best case scenario. Bosnia were somewhere in the middle and the odds reflect the widely held belief that this is an evenly matched encounter.
It's hard to argue with the Balkan nation being the slight favourites at 1.80 in the To Qualify market (Sportsbook). They qualified for last summer's World Cup in Brazil and have generally performed at a higher level than Ireland in recent campaigns.
In Edin Dzeko and Miralem Pjanic, they possess two blue chip attacking players that are extremely capable of hurting opponents. Dzeko appears to have recovered from an injury that has limited his contribution at new employer Roma.
Ireland, by contrast, have a range of concerns about their leading players. The experience of John O'Shea and Jon Walters will be missed in Friday's first leg in Zenica and a hamstring injury means O'Shea is unlikely to return for the decider.
Meanwhile, Shane Long - who scored the stunning goal against Germany that gave Ireland this chance - is extremely doubtful due to an ankle injury sustained in the subsequent loss to Poland. O'Neill could do with his pace.
A Brazilian hangover has been blamed for a poor Bosnian start to a group where they finished behind Belgium and Wales and since the appointment of Mehmed Bazdarevic they've won five out of their six competitive fixtures.
They do give teams a chance, though, but the problem for Ireland is that they are short of players that can take them. Robbie Keane is a prolific scorer but he is no longer the force of old in terms of being able to get into the position to trouble defences at this level and it would be surprise if he was selected. Daryl Murphy is a contender for Friday and did break his duck for the season at the weekend by scoring a hat-trick for Ipswich, but he has never scored at international level.
With Everton duo Seamus Coleman and James McCarthy in good form and Wes Hoolahan a creative force, there is a strong reason to believe that Ireland can pose problems for Bosnia. However, if they are to meet their manager's target of an away goal in the first game then they will need to find goals from an unfamiliar source.
There is an advantage in having the decider in Dublin and the theme of the week will be finding the right result to make that game competitive. Ciaran Clark impressed for Aston Villa at the weekend after a rough experience against Spurs earlier in the week and he has made himself a real contender for the task of deputising for O'Shea.
O'Neill must decide whether to stick with Robbie Brady at left back or go for more a conservative defender and deploy the Norwich player further up the park. He may opt for the latter in the away leg.
It's a tough tie to call. The protagonists are competing at this stage because they have vulnerabilities that prevented them from finishing in the top two. Bosnia are on a good run, yet there's a suspicion that it came in a weaker group than Ireland's. This clash should go right down to the wire.
Both Teams to Score in First Leg 2.10
There are betting opportunities that revolve around Ireland being capable of hitting the target in Zenica and while there are valid concerns about the lack of a predator, they will still be capable of forcing openings. Wales visited the compact venue last month for a 2-0 defeat but that scoreline did not reflect the amount of chances that the away side created. Ireland are going to struggle to keep a clean sheet but this is a game where the 2.10 about both sides hitting the target is appealing. Bosnia conceded 12 goals in qualifying, and that makes them the leakiest defence competing in the play-offs.
Robbie Brady Anytime Scorer 7.00
This column has put up Brady before because of his set piece prowess but he didn't quite manage to deliver. His price for this game looks to be borne from the understandable belief that he will play at left back again, but that is by no means guaranteed and if the clever operator is selected in midfield then the odds would shorten considerably. Throw in his prominence in the set piece target and this Sportsbook price is worth a speculative punt.
