Leeds v Derby: High-flying Rams to win again

Leeds v Derby
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Leeds

Steve Evans' side did us a very nice turn on Sunday evening with Sam Byram's third goal in three games earning United a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest and us a very nice 10pt profit. That point also lifted them into the top half of the table on goal difference.

Under Evans, the Whites have lost just three out of 12 matches and have won three of their last four at Elland Road. This larger-than-life character has been ranting and raving in the press about his side having to play again barely 48 hours after that clash at the City Ground but we can guarantee he's using the perceived injustice to fire up his side.

Derby

County come to Elland Road either top or second, depending on Middlesbrough's result on Monday, and will have revenge of their mind following September's televised 2-1 defeat at the iPro Stadium, which left Paul Clement without a win from his first five games in charge. Murmurings of dissent could be heard but the powers-that-be kept cool heads and the Rams have lost just once in 18 matches since then.

Three straight wins without conceding (in fact they haven't let in a goal in each of their last seven victories) gives them the look of a side with minds firmly fixed on the automatic promotion places. Winger Tom Ince scored the winner at Ipswich in their last away game, having netted a hat-trick at home to Bristol City a few days earlier.

Match Odds

The visitors are understandably market favourites at 2.04, while Leeds are 4.20 and the draw is3.50. The fact that County can be backed at odds against despite their hugely impressive run of form is probably due to the fight which Evans has installed in his outfit but it makes the away win an attractive bet at that price.

Clement's side will have the benefit of an extra 24 hours to prepare for this clash and though Evans has said he will rotate his side, United don't have the strength in depth that their opponents do. Having won at both Ipswich and Hull in recent weeks, the Rams should be able to grind out another three points here and that's the recommended best bet.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Unders can't be backed at any better than 1.65 which is probably fair enough given that Derby have kept clean sheets in five of their last six games, while putting a line through the 3-2 win at Wolves, the home side's last six fixtures have featured just five goals in total. Overs is 2.42and while I wouldn't put anybody off backing 0-0 as the half time score I'm going to delve into the half time/full time market for my second bet.

Half time/Full time

The main difference between Clement and his predecessor Steve McClaren is the former's morecautious tactics - especially away from home - and I'm expecting his patient approach to pay dividends here.

They didn't break through in the wins over Ipswich and Bristol City until just before the interval and hand to wait until the second-half on Saturday before going ahead against Fulham. I expect Leeds to put a good fight here but fatigue and the visitors' extra quality should tell after the break so draw/Derby is my second play in this one.

Recommended Bets

Back Derby to win at 2.04 *best bet
Back draw/Derby in the half time/full time market at 5.20