Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
Saturday, 15:00
Saturday, 15:00
The irrepressible resilience of Diego Simeone's Atletico is eerily reminiscent of that impossible 2013/14 La Liga campaign. This is not supposed to be happening. Not again.
The team that were 66/1 to win the title have lost just once in their last 22 games and are level on points with Barcelona at the top of the table - despite selling £160 million worth of star players in the past three seasons.
Simeone is arguably the best defensive coach in world football; his team's off-the-ball shape is phenomenally compact, with a stop-start pressing system used to hassle key players off the ball and drop deep during sustained periods of pressure.
A swarming collective, Atletico's incredible form over the past three seasons owes much to the intelligence and diligence of their system. They utilise a 4-4-2 formation, although in truth the tactical complexity and positional fluidity of each individual player makes traditional categorisation of formation somewhat redundant. His team are most effective when playing in a deep, crouched defensive position and pouncing forward on the counter.
This tactical style will be employed this weekend at the Camp Nou (Atletico held just 30% possession in the reverse fixture last September). Barcelona are arguably better this season than at their peak under Pep Guardiola, with that preposterous front three of Neymar, Luis Suarez, and Leo Messi breaking all sorts of records in Spain, but this weekend's title clash presents their toughest challenge to date. Atletico have only conceded eight goals in La Liga all season and just twice in their last ten.
In another league season in which the top three teams rarely drop points, the head-to-heads are monumentally important. This match could end up deciding the title. So what will the key battles be?
Atletico defensive model v Barcelona's grit
Barcelona's tiki-taka has evolved into a far more tactically adaptive system under Luis Enrique, with greater emphasis on long passes and vertical movement than during the Pep Guardiola era. This has translated into a more brutal, ruthless Barcelona side characterised by the scope of Ivan Rakitic's passing and the forceful directness of Neymar. Against such an aggressive, tenacious side as Atletico (24.7 tackles per match, most in La Liga) these elements of their game will be more important than ever.
Barca's 2-1 win at Malaga last weekend was good preparation for this game, with two scrappy goals deciding a sticky encounter. We know that Enrique's team will dominate the ball (62% possession average this season), but against such a deep shell as Atletico's they will need to battle aggressively in the final third; it will not be easy.
Back under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Suarez v Godin
The two Uruguayans will be involved in the most fascinating head-to-head this weekend; both are feisty players willing to go to any length to achieve their goal. Godin is arguably the best central defender in the world and undoubtedly the main reason for Atletico's stunning defensive record (2.5 tackles, 3.4 interceptions per game), and the only way past him is via the kind of wriggling, tenacious centre-forward play that Luis Suarez is famous for: he has scored 26 goalsin his last 26 games.
Back Suarez to score any time at 5/4.
Koke v Turan
Koke technically plays as the left midfielder in Atletico's 4-4-2 formation, but he drifts infield at every opportunity to help overload the centre of the pitch and build his team's counters with quick tempo interchanges (57.1 passes, 2.0 key passes per game); to stop Atletico, Koke must be targeted.
Barcelona's capture of Arda Turan from Atletico was an intriguing and symbolically significant acquisition; he is a battling central midfielder uncharacteristic of the Barca squad, suggesting that Enrique recognises that a more plucky and physical presence is needed at Camp Nou. Turan will most likely start in central midfield, corresponding to Koke's movement; the battle between these two players could be decisive.
Griezmann v Busquets
Griezmann is a phenomenally intelligent footballer who, in Simeone's system, links the lines as a number ten-cum-striker, slaloming through central midfield and creating opportunities for his team mates. There is no doubt that he is the greatest threat to a Barcelona clean sheet.
Lurking in that zone of the pitch it will be Sergio Busquets job to stamp out the Frenchman's influence. Busquets has missed training with illness this week and thus may be slightly below his best on Saturday, giving Griezmann a chance to gallop forward on the counter and create goalscoring opportunities for his team.
Back double chance Atletico/draw at 6/4.
