Colchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday 12:45
Live on BT Sport 2
Saturday 12:45
Live on BT Sport 2
Tottenham Hotspur
The first key question here for any bettor is to ask how Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettinowill approach the FA Cup for a long term interest in the tournament? The Argentine will want to win his first trophy as manager at White Hart Lane undoubtedly , and at 9.60, the north Londoners have a realistic chance of lifting it too. Will progress take priority over their Europa League campaign (for which they finished top of Group J)? Or will the total focus revolve around a possible tilt for the Premier League - which is a definite runner, and are available to back at9.80.
However, these questions could be saved for later in the season perhaps, as after all, Pochettino could have the luxury of of resting several players this weekend, and they still should be too strong for a Colchester side that are bottom of League One.
There are many aspects of Tottenham's improvement this term to draw attention to. They certainly are one of the fittest teams, which is why young players settle so well in this high-energy side. Goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has highlighted a better mentality at the club - and they certainly look stronger than a year ago, with added squad strength.
The famed Pochettino pressing-game applies to the youthful midfield. And the recent switch from 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1 has improved the side greatly. 19-year-old Dele Alli thrives in this role, and is allowed to use his box-to-box skills with the majority of his game in the opponent's half.Nacer Chadli plays as if in a free role, and they all rotate superbly.
Added to that, they have the meanest defence in the top flight - giving up just 19 goals all season.
Colchester United
The Essex club have a great model. They have Category 2 status for their Academy, and their youngsters certainly will get a chance if good enough. Vice-captain Alex Gilbey is testament to this, as the 21-year-old has already reeled off over 100 appearances for the club and is reportedly wanted by a Championship suitor.
Manager Kevin Keen was brought in earlier in the season to replace Tony Humes, and one suspects the job remit is to nurture the young talent they have at the club. And whilst performances have improved, the results have not. United haven't won for 98 days, and are five points from safety. They have also conceded 65 goals, the worst in League One by a distance.
Experience has been added with the recent signing of former England left-back Nicky Shorey. Elsewhere, Owen Garvan, Darren Ambrose, Marvin Sordell and Chris Porter are the wise heads in an otherwise budding squad.
Route To Fourth Round
This will be the first competitive meeting between the two clubs.
Tottenham were taken to a replay by Leicester City in the third round, but came through courtesy of a 0-2 win in the Midlands thanks to goals from Son Heung-Min and Nacer Chadli.
Colchester's path has been rather more earthy - with early round successes against Altrincham (3-2) and Wealdstone (6-2). More impressive however was their 2-1 victory over Charlton in the third round, although that says more about the Addicks these days than Colchester.
Spurs have a very good record against lower league opposition in the FA Cup - losing just once in 13 matches, but haven't progressed past this stage since they reached the semi-final in 2012.
Colchester are in the fourth round for the first time in 10 years. They reached the fifth round in 2006.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Tottenham have failed to score in only four Premier League games this season, but it's a fairly even split in terms of 'unders' and 'overs'. The Londoners have netted 11 'over 2.5' and 12 'under'.
The scenario is slightly better for the Europa League - with four against two in favour of 'over 2.5', and they topped their group in real style.
I've outlined the wretched defensive record of Colchester above; for which they are conceding 2.32 on average per game. So far in 2016 they've shipped eight in five matches, and their last clean sheet came in September 2015 against Bradford. U's boss Keen will be hoping his opposite number rests Harry Kane.
The price of 1.45 for 'over 2.5' is extremely short, with the market wisdom expecting the home defence to do their party trick - and concede plenty. It's also a tough market to get involved with as team selection for cup games is never easy to second guess, but there's not much value at such prohibitive odds.
Spurs should be good for a couple of goals, and an early one means Colchester will sit back to stay in the game for as long as possible, which offers the chance to trade on a 0-2 scoreline.
First Goalscorer Odds
Most will answer Kane to this question. And why not? The England striker is in rather prolific form at the moment with a run of 15 goals in 18 appearances from all competitions. But he has started every Premier League game and Spurs have endured a fairly gruelling schedule of 12 matches since December, and the prospect of three in the next eight days might prompt a change.
If he starts, Kane realistically could be around the 5/2 mark. Even though the squad have enjoyed a break in Spain in the lead-up to this match, I'd be surprised if he wasn't given a breather.
I'd be interested in Erik Lamela 9.00 and Deli Alli 7.00 to net first. The former looks physically much stronger this season, and has thrived under Pochettino. The mercurial Argentine has hit eight from 18 in the Europa League, which included a hat-trick this term against Monaco. I personally enjoyed his deft chip against Qarabag - although he wasted several chances in that game to score earlier. I read with interest that he averaged 2.5 tackles per game at one point this season - which was my average for a year once.
Alli needs no introduction after his Crystal Palace goal - although it was slightly overrated. It needed to arrow top corner for me. He used to appear in my League One column not so long ago - and used to score plenty for the MK Dons with either foot. He is a remarkable finisher for a midfielder. I was a convert years ago.
Recommended Bets
Back Erik Lamela @ 3.00 and Deli Alli 3.50 to score
Back Tottenham Hotspur to win 2-0 @ 8.00
