MK Dons v Chelsea: Blues to bide their time and win through

MK Dons v Chelsea
Sunday, 16:00
Live on BBC1

MK Dons

Karl Robinson's men are just about keeping their heads above water in the second tier of English football, though Saturday's 3-1 loss at bottom-of-the-table Bolton will have done little for confidence ahead of Sunday's FA Cup clash against reigning Premier League champions Chelsea.

The Dons sit just two points ahead of the Championship drop zone but they are definitely a much tougher nut to crack at Stadium mk, and in recent weeks have won four of their last five games in front of their own fans including notable scalps over decent sides like Sheffield Wednesday, Cardiff, and Reading. However, their only home loss in that time was a shuddering 0-5 defeat to Burnley.

Robinson likes his team to play a patient passing game, often in a 4-2-3-1 formation with the option of switching to a more direct 4-4-2, though with just 23 league goals to their name this season MK Dons are the joint second lowest scoring side of all 72 Football League clubs.

Chelsea

The Blues, as alluded to above, are the reigning Premier League champions, but we all know that's in name only. And I don't say that just because they have no chance of retaining their title; sometimes you can play like champions but get edged out by two or three better sides over a season.

But that's not the case with Chelsea. They're not playing anything like champions and thoroughly deserve to be where they are in the Premier League table - which is 13th if you need reminding, just five points above the relegation zone.

True, results have improved under Guus Hiddink and Chelsea are yet to taste defeat under their interim boss, but I'm still massively unconvinced by the way they are performing.

Still, an eight-game unbeaten run is a huge step in the right direction even allowing for home draws with Watford, West Brom, and Everton. And last week Chelsea arguably put in their best performance under Hiddink - it was most certainly their best result - when winning at Arsenal, albeit aided by the early dismissal of Per Mertesacker.

Match Odds

The gulf in class between these two clubs obviously dictates the way the market is shaped, and even allowing for the fact that Chelsea have been a shadow of the title-winning side from last season they thoroughly deserve to be strong favourites.

But I have to admit at being a bit surprised to see them trading so short - 1.38 the price on offer at the time of writing.

As mentioned earlier, MK Dons have been very impressive on home soil of late, and if they set-up how they often do here, with two holding midfielders in front of a bank of four defenders intent on frustrating Chelsea, then that's exactly the type of game Hiddink's men have struggled with this season, especially under predecessor Jose Mourinho.

Consider also a cup-tie atmosphere and a less than smooth playing surface then this game might be a lot closer than the market suggests it will be.

MK Dons can be backed at 10.00, with the Draw at 5.20, and while I expect Chelsea to get the job done eventually I'm happy to leave this market alone and back a Blues win via another method.

Half Time/Full Time

And that method is for Hiddink's men to prevail in the second half.

Robinson will know that in an open game his side can't compete with the ability of Chelsea, so his best chance of springing a surprise is to keep this game tight for as long as possible.

So expect the Dons to line-up as already mentioned, fully intent on frustrating Hiddink's men (similar to how they perform in the Championship - just one of their last eight home goals conceded came in the first half).

And don't expect Chelsea to force matters either. They'll be content to play a patient game and create one or two opportunities that unlocks the MK Dons defence. Of course, that could happen at any time, but I'm happy to wager that Robinson's men will remain disciplined and be able to keep the visitors out until at least half-time.

And if the game pans out how I expect it to then Chelsea's class should eventually win the day... but not before the second period hopefully.

The Draw/Chelsea option will be available to back at around 5.00 closer to kick-off.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

As always when a Match Odds market is so heavily in favour of one side, Over 2.5 Goals is a strong favourite in this market also - available to back at 1.82 here.

But my thinking is the 'overs' price is one you should take only if you expect MK Dons to get on the scoresheet. If they do then there's a good chance we'll witness at least three goals in the game, admittedly.

But remember that Robinson's men are one of the lowest scoring sides in the division - Josh Murphy is their leading scoring in the Championship with just four goals - and that Chelsea are yet to concede a single goal away from home under Hiddink.

In conclusion then, I believe it will be a tough ask for the home side to breach Chelsea's defence on Sunday afternoon, and in what I expect to be a tight, cat and mouse type of game, a chance is taken on Under 2.5 Goals at 2.16.

Recommended Bets

Back Draw HT/Chelsea FT @ 5.00 (best bet)
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.16