Match Odds
Plymouth, with a bigger fanbase on crowd averages, are the slight favourites for the 90-minute victory at 2.70, with AFC Wimbledon at 3.10. The draw is about 3.30.
Plymouth finished the League Two season six points above the Dons who didn't have the greatest record against fellow top seven teams, a combination of which seems to justify their bigger price than Argyle. But they showed great character to come back at Accrington and the second half of the season was when they came on strong.
The historical fact that Plymouth have been to Wembley just once before, winning the 1996 Third Division playoff final, will have no bearing, especially when AFC Wimbledon, as a club, have a more recent playoff winning experience, albeit not at Wembley.
The historical fact that Plymouth have been to Wembley just once before, winning the 1996 Third Division playoff final, will have no bearing, especially when AFC Wimbledon, as a club, have a more recent playoff winning experience, albeit not at Wembley.
AFC Wimbledon will be hoping to keep the defence, for whom Paul Robinson has been excellent, as tight as in six of their last eight matches, when they kept a clean sheet. Dannie Bulman's presence in sitting in front of the defence has also made it tight.
In one sense, the stats are for AFC Wimbledon. In three of the last six years the team finishing seventh has gone on to win promotion, but last year it was the fifth placed team - as Plymouth have finished this time - Southend, who went up via Wembley.
I don't expect a particularly tight game as creative players like Graham Carey and Gregg Wylde for Plymouth and - for their opponents - George Francombe, marauding forward, andSean Rigg find space and go for it.
I have this feeling that AFC Wimbledon, initially, will play with more freedom than Plymouth, who could come on stronger once they find a foothold, with substitute Reuben Reid waiting to prowl like a primed lion to snare his prey. The match could just go the way of Plymouth in the end.
Over 2.5 Goals
Given that both sides have capable scorers, a price of 1.80 for under 2.5 goals and 2.20 for overs might seem the wrong way around. However, AFC Wimbledon only scored 64 goals in the regular season, the lowest by a distance in the top seven.
They also only conceded 50 which equates to 2.4 per game.
Eight of their last 11 league and playoff games have finished under 2.5 goals.
Plymouth, however, struck up a string of nine games with over 2.5 goals before their 1-0 win over Portsmouth in the semis.
Three of the last five League Two playoff finals have been resolved with under 2.5 goals.
Three of the last five League Two playoff finals have been resolved with under 2.5 goals.
On Wembley's big pitch, that's a bit of a surprise and I would expect when there are very capable attackers in Lyle Taylor and Jamille Matt then there will be at least three goals.
First Goalscorer
Peter Hartley (about 40.00), whose stoppage time goal saw off Portsmouth to give him his best ever moment in football, has perhaps had his moment in the sun so the Pilgrims ought to be looking for another Messiah to score.
Midfielder Graham Carey 8.00 and forward Jake Jervis [6.5] are top scorers with 11, but the talented yet combustible Jamille Matt at 5.50 is the more likely spark for Argyle. Reuben Reid at 7.00 would be a more interesting choice if he was guaranteed a start.
On the Dons' side, Lyle Taylor is the obvious market leader at 5.00 but Tom Elliott at 8.00 can be considered while if the game is goalless after the first half and Akinfenwa come on after an hour his price will plummet from [8.5].
Recommended Bets:
Back Plymouth to win at 2.70
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.20
Back Jamille Matt to score first at 5.50
