Belgium v Republic of Ireland
Saturday June 18, 14:00
Live on ITV1
So, as predicted, Belgium are 'in crisis' and they've drifted to win Euro 2016, but what we have to ask ourselves is how low will they go?
The Republic of Ireland were desperately unfortunate not to give this column a winner at 3.50 against Sweden. I thought that they played superbly, with Jeff Hendrick an unlikely star and Sweden mighty fortunate.
In my Group Preview, I stated that Belgium could regret the role of Marc Wilmots, and yet I felt that a gifted group of players could overcome his ineptitude.
I'm not sure that's the case now, and they absolutely have to beat the Republic to breathe life into their Euro 2016 campaign. Wilmots was schooled by Antonio Conte, and now we're waiting to see whether Martin O'Neill can do the same.
I doubt it. For all Belgium's frailty, they were unfortunate not to at least score against Italy, and the Republic will need to be picked up after they threw everything at Sweden and failed to win. They'll need luck, an immense performance, and then a bit more luck. I'd give them a tiny chance, but feel that this game could be the one that gives Belgium momentum.
I'm also acutely aware that my faith in Belgium cost me dear at the World Cup in Brazil, and that I'm in danger of falling into that betting trap of refusing to give up on something. I'll give them the chance to get out of the Group, see how they've played, and decide whether to sever my ties at the Round of 16 stage.
Value in the corners market
If Italy against Belgium was unpredictable, the corner count was at least high, which got us a win, and I don't see any reason to desert that logic here. Both of these teams play with width, aren't afraid to shoot, and aren't the best defenders of crosses. That leads us to corner nirvana, and so I'll be a layer of nine corners or fewer again.
Belgium midfielders can get on scoresheet
It's also worth having a look at the To Score market from a Belgium perspective. Radja Nainggolan was up there with their most threatening players against Italy, and he will definitely test Darren Randolph from the edge of the area. Randolph looks suspect on occasion to me, and with at least three goals so far purely down to goalkeeping errors, we may be set for another.
Marouane Fellaini was nightmareishly bad against Italy, and may be dropped against the Republic, but after his goalscoring record in qualifying and ability to get key goals, I wouldn't write him off. If he plays, he's in the portfolio for this one.
Recommended Bets
Back Radja Nainggolan to score in Belgium against Republic of Ireland @ 11.00
Back Marouane Fellaini to score in Belgium against Republic of Ireland @ 5.60
Lay 9 Corners or fewer in Belgium against Republic of Ireland @ 2.50
Saturday June 18, 14:00
Live on ITV1
So, as predicted, Belgium are 'in crisis' and they've drifted to win Euro 2016, but what we have to ask ourselves is how low will they go?
The Republic of Ireland were desperately unfortunate not to give this column a winner at 3.50 against Sweden. I thought that they played superbly, with Jeff Hendrick an unlikely star and Sweden mighty fortunate.
In my Group Preview, I stated that Belgium could regret the role of Marc Wilmots, and yet I felt that a gifted group of players could overcome his ineptitude.
I'm not sure that's the case now, and they absolutely have to beat the Republic to breathe life into their Euro 2016 campaign. Wilmots was schooled by Antonio Conte, and now we're waiting to see whether Martin O'Neill can do the same.
I doubt it. For all Belgium's frailty, they were unfortunate not to at least score against Italy, and the Republic will need to be picked up after they threw everything at Sweden and failed to win. They'll need luck, an immense performance, and then a bit more luck. I'd give them a tiny chance, but feel that this game could be the one that gives Belgium momentum.
I'm also acutely aware that my faith in Belgium cost me dear at the World Cup in Brazil, and that I'm in danger of falling into that betting trap of refusing to give up on something. I'll give them the chance to get out of the Group, see how they've played, and decide whether to sever my ties at the Round of 16 stage.
Value in the corners market
If Italy against Belgium was unpredictable, the corner count was at least high, which got us a win, and I don't see any reason to desert that logic here. Both of these teams play with width, aren't afraid to shoot, and aren't the best defenders of crosses. That leads us to corner nirvana, and so I'll be a layer of nine corners or fewer again.
Belgium midfielders can get on scoresheet
It's also worth having a look at the To Score market from a Belgium perspective. Radja Nainggolan was up there with their most threatening players against Italy, and he will definitely test Darren Randolph from the edge of the area. Randolph looks suspect on occasion to me, and with at least three goals so far purely down to goalkeeping errors, we may be set for another.
Marouane Fellaini was nightmareishly bad against Italy, and may be dropped against the Republic, but after his goalscoring record in qualifying and ability to get key goals, I wouldn't write him off. If he plays, he's in the portfolio for this one.
Recommended Bets
Back Radja Nainggolan to score in Belgium against Republic of Ireland @ 11.00
Back Marouane Fellaini to score in Belgium against Republic of Ireland @ 5.60
Lay 9 Corners or fewer in Belgium against Republic of Ireland @ 2.50
