Iceland v Hungary
Saturday June 18, 18:00
Live on BBC One
Saturday June 18, 18:00
Live on BBC One
Iceland
Iceland made plenty of headlines when drawing 1-1 with Portugal. They were the smallest nation in terms ofpopulation to ever take part in the Euros, their fans perfected the art of synchronised chanting and (quite rightly) they took offence to Cristiano Ronaldo's claim they were a country with a 'small mentality'. Former Rotherham United striker (not words I often write when discussing a European Championship) Kari Arnason went as far as saying Ronaldo wasn't a 'gracious human being.''
But amidst all this nonsense that gets the world of Twitter up in arms, it was perhaps Chris Waddle (formerly of Worksop Town, sorry I couldn't resist) who said what we are all thinking 'Honesty, endeavour - that's what Iceland are all about. They were getting a football lesson in the first half but they never threw in the towel. They've got their rewards.''
That said, Opta tells us Iceland had the lowest possession of any side in the first round of matches (27.8%) and keeper Thor Halldorsson needed to make eight saves to keep his side in the game, the most since Joe Hart against Italy in 2012. They'll need to improve to avoid defeat for a second time.
Hungary
Just hours before Iceland's heroics against Portugal, Hungary were causing an upset of their own. An equally solid performance with a well-executed gameplan saw them beat the much-fancied Austria 2-0. Yes, the unnecessary sending off of Aleksandar Dragovic obviously helped matters but they were already 1-0 up and looking good when it happened.
Hungary proved age is just a number with 37-year old Zolten Gera putting in a man-of-the-match display that included making 55 passes, three clearances and three interceptions and 40-year old Gabor Kiraly making a fine save from a deflected effort though in truth, he had little else to do.
Match Odds
It's hard to see why Iceland are favourites. They weathered a Portuguese storm and delivered a sucker punch. Good on them but it's a bit much to ask them to do it all again, especially after such a draining match where they were permanently on the back foot; it makes you wonder how much they have left in the tank.
The manner of Hungary's win and the advantage of playing much of the second half against ten men suggests they'll be fresher. Even without the stat that Hungary have won the last five matches played between the two, Bern Srtorck's side look the considerably better option at 3.15. But given that a draw would be seen as a good result for either side, we'll leave this market alone.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The case for Unders is that this has been a low-scoring tournament and that only three of Hungary's last 10 matches have broken the 2.5 goals barrier. The case for Overs is that seven of Iceland's last 10 matches had at least three goals and that the second round of matches at tournaments tend to have more goals. All three of the last matches between these sides produced over 2.5 goals. All of which suggest they should be about evens the pair. Are they? No, they're not. Overs is out at 2.50 and that looks serious value.
Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.50
