Germany v France
Thursday 7th Jul, 20:00
Live on BBC1
Introduction
France have a full squad to pick from. Coach Didier Deschamps has two major selection decisions to make: whether to recall Adil Rami in place of Samuel Umtiti after the Sevilla centre-back missed France's 5-2 quarter-final win over Iceland through suspension, and whether to recall N'Golo Kante (also suspended against Iceland) in midfield. A linked and even more important question is how will France set-up: in a 4-3-3 formation that would give their unconvincing defence greater protection, or in the 4-2-3-1 formation that has seen them score seven times in their last 135 minutes, and brought out the best in four-goal tournament top scorer Antoine Griezmann?
Germany have problems in defence, midfield and attack as Mats Hummels (suspended), Sami Khedira (injured) and Mario Gomez (injured) are all ruled out. Bastian Schweinsteiger is an injury doubt. The spine of the side is clearly weaker without those three and possibly four players. After using a three-man defence in the quarter-final against Italy (1-1, penalty shoot-out win) Germany are expected to revert to a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.62, Overs 2.58
They say semi-finals are often cagey affairs but the stats don't actually stack up that way: eight of 16 (50%) European Championship semi-finals since 1984 have featured Over 2.5 Goals. On that basis the real odds on this game featuring three goals or more should be evens.
Most factors ahead of this game point towards a high-scoring encounter. France are the highest-scoring side (11 goals) in the finals and have netted seven goals in two knock-out games. Their defence looks vulnerable as there are ongoing concerns over the quality of their centre-back partnership and Patrice Evra.
Germany also have defensive worries, with Hummels and Khedira ruled out. In the circumstances Overs, as underdog, looks the better bet.
Both Teams to Score
Yes 2.16, No 1.86
'Yes' in this market is the best bet on the game. France are the tournament's top scorers (11 goals), have scored seven times in their last two outings and the only game where they failed to score (0-0 v Switzerland) didn't really matter as they needed only a point to top the group. Throughout the tournament it has been obvious France's attack is better than their defence so they are likely to play on the front foot here. The absence of Mats Hummels and Sami Khedira in the Germany ranks merely increases France's chances of finding the net.
Germany will draw confidence about their own chances of scoring from the fact that France's defence looks so vulnerable. Even without being prolific so far (seven goals in five matches) Germany will believe they can find the net against a France side with an uncertain centre-back pairing and where Evra has looked like the weak link in defence in every single France match.
Recommended Bet
Both Teams to Score @ 2.16
Thursday 7th Jul, 20:00
Live on BBC1
Introduction
France have a full squad to pick from. Coach Didier Deschamps has two major selection decisions to make: whether to recall Adil Rami in place of Samuel Umtiti after the Sevilla centre-back missed France's 5-2 quarter-final win over Iceland through suspension, and whether to recall N'Golo Kante (also suspended against Iceland) in midfield. A linked and even more important question is how will France set-up: in a 4-3-3 formation that would give their unconvincing defence greater protection, or in the 4-2-3-1 formation that has seen them score seven times in their last 135 minutes, and brought out the best in four-goal tournament top scorer Antoine Griezmann?
Germany have problems in defence, midfield and attack as Mats Hummels (suspended), Sami Khedira (injured) and Mario Gomez (injured) are all ruled out. Bastian Schweinsteiger is an injury doubt. The spine of the side is clearly weaker without those three and possibly four players. After using a three-man defence in the quarter-final against Italy (1-1, penalty shoot-out win) Germany are expected to revert to a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.62, Overs 2.58
They say semi-finals are often cagey affairs but the stats don't actually stack up that way: eight of 16 (50%) European Championship semi-finals since 1984 have featured Over 2.5 Goals. On that basis the real odds on this game featuring three goals or more should be evens.
Most factors ahead of this game point towards a high-scoring encounter. France are the highest-scoring side (11 goals) in the finals and have netted seven goals in two knock-out games. Their defence looks vulnerable as there are ongoing concerns over the quality of their centre-back partnership and Patrice Evra.
Germany also have defensive worries, with Hummels and Khedira ruled out. In the circumstances Overs, as underdog, looks the better bet.
Both Teams to Score
Yes 2.16, No 1.86
'Yes' in this market is the best bet on the game. France are the tournament's top scorers (11 goals), have scored seven times in their last two outings and the only game where they failed to score (0-0 v Switzerland) didn't really matter as they needed only a point to top the group. Throughout the tournament it has been obvious France's attack is better than their defence so they are likely to play on the front foot here. The absence of Mats Hummels and Sami Khedira in the Germany ranks merely increases France's chances of finding the net.
Germany will draw confidence about their own chances of scoring from the fact that France's defence looks so vulnerable. Even without being prolific so far (seven goals in five matches) Germany will believe they can find the net against a France side with an uncertain centre-back pairing and where Evra has looked like the weak link in defence in every single France match.
Recommended Bet
Both Teams to Score @ 2.16
