"Derby have risen from 21st in the Championship table in late October to just a point off the play-offs thanks to their spectacular run of results under Steve McClaren’s watch (W8-D2-L1)."
Tuesday 27 December, 15:00Live on Sky Sports 1
Derby
Birmingham
Match Odds
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.78
Tuesday 27 December, 15:00Live on Sky Sports 1
Derby
Birmingham
Match Odds
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.78
Derby have risen from 21st in the Championship table in late October to just a point off the play-offs thanks to their spectacular run of results under Steve McClaren's watch (W8-D2-L1).
The Rams' last loss was to a 94th-minute goal at Huddersfield on 22 October and last time out County showed plenty of spirit to battle back from 2-1 down at Fulham to earn a point.
Tom Ince has flourished in the return to 4-3-3, scoring seven of Derby's 16 goals under McClaren. Elsewhere, Alex Pearce and Richard Keogh's outstanding combination at centre-half has lead to eight clean sheets in 11 outings.
The Rams should have midfielder Will Hughes back available here whilst Nick Blackman and Ikechi Anya have returned to training. Left-back Max Lowe remains sidelined by a groin problem.
Gianfranco Zola's first game in charge of Birmingham ended in heartbreak as Brighton nicked a winner 30 seconds from the end. The Blues deserved at least a point for their efforts after enjoying only one training session with the Italian before the encounter.
The club's owners are looking for Zola to implement an attractive, attacking style of play but the new boss admitted turning this hard-working City side, who were notoriously difficult to beat under Gary Rowett, into a stylish team who still get results will take time.
At Watford, Zola played a bold 3-5-2 that manipulated the ball in midfield while his West Ham team were renowned for their attacking style. But with Lukas Jutkiewicz already scoring six headed goals in the Championship this season, the current crop have been more accustomed with a direct style of play.
The Blues are hoping to have striker Clayton Donaldson back in the fray after he missed the Brighton clash through injury.
Derby have only claimed a sole success in seven league meetings with Birmingham (W1-D4-L2) recently, whilst the Blues have scored in each of their past 14 trips to County.
However, the Rams have churned out W5-D1-L0 in their past six iPro Stadium outings, keeping clean sheets in each. County have never recorded seven successive shutouts on home soil but do look a great bet at 1.74 to secure the points on Tuesday afternoon.
Birmingham 5.60 have only suffered three away defeats in 10 this term (W3-D4-L3) and the Blues' W2-D5-L4 return from road trips under Rowett at top-eight clubs since the beginning of last season is reasonable.
But I'm not convinced the appointment of Zola will have the desired effect on City, who've won the shout count in only two of their last nine matches and faced at least 20 shots in each of their last three games as guests.
Only four (36%) of Derby's 11 games under McClaren have featured at least three goals and over the course of the campaign, just five (23%) of the Rams' fixtures have broken the two-goal mark.
With each of County's past eight games when entertaining top-half teams producing Under 2.5 Goals winners, it's perhaps a little generous to see a repeat chalked up at 1.78 quotes here.
Birmingham have delivered a low-scoring contest in 14 of their past 19 games away from the Second City and 23/33 (70%) have followed suit since the beginning of 2015/16.
