"Getting over 2/1 for him finding the net against a very modest City defence looks good business and Firmino can help the Reds sign off 2016 in style."
Liverpool v Man City
Saturday 31 December, 17:30
Live on BT Sport
Saturday 31 December, 17:30
Live on BT Sport
Liverpool
It's a mark of how far Liverpool have come under Jurgen Klopp that they've accumulated more points in this calendar year than Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United.
In other words, their improvement is deep-rooted and long-term. By sitting second in this season's Premier League table, Liverpool aren't overachieving.
Notably, they've also outscored everyone else in 2016 - and by some margin. The Merseysiders have plundered 86 goals - 12 more than second-best Chelsea and a massive 32 more than Man Utd.
By contrast, they've conceded more goals (49) this year than Everton, West Brom, Southampton and Leicester as well as the other usual suspects.
Put it altogether and the 4-1 win over Stoke at Anfield on Tuesday night was almost a typical and expected Liverpool scoreline.
They've now blasted 100 Premier League goals under Klopp and to prove that it's been a collective effort, no single player has contributed more than the 16 netted by Roberto Firmino.
The average is 2.08 per game.
Just as Liverpool fans hoped after drooling over what Klopp had acheived at Borussia Dortmund, he's transformed the Reds into a dynamic, relentless and potent attacking force. One that could just have too much for Saturday evening's visitors.
Man City
One point and one place behind Liverpool, City head to Anfield on the back of three straight wins in the Premier League.
Those victories were expected at home to Watford (2-0) and away to Hull (3-0) but they'll hope the middle result of that trio - the come-from-behind 2-1 success over Arsenal - was something of a turning point.
They're dangerous animals on the road having won seven of their nine games while City's tally of 22 away goals is two more than anyone else in the top flight.
Of concern to Pep Guardiola must be the way they capitulated in the 4-2 loss at Leicester.
The champions came out hard and fast that day and were 3-0 up inside 20 minutes. Tactical uncertainty or anything less than full commitment from the start at Anfield and they risk Liverpool doing the same thing to them.
One huge bit of team news is that City welcome back star striker Sergio Aguero from a ban. The Argentine had scored 16 goals from 19 starts before he picked up a suspension for a ridiculous lunge at David Luiz.
He's scored four Premier League goals against Liverpool in his time although none of those were at Anfield.
Match Odds
Liverpool are 2.40 to go four points clear of Guardiola's men and extend their home record this season to P9, W7, D2, L0. Stretching back to last season, they're now unbeaten in 23 games at Anfield in all competitions.
Man City are 3.15 to bank another away win while the draw - something the Citizens haven't experienced away from home this season - is 3.65.
Recent head-to-heads show a strong bias towards Liverpool. They've won the last three Premier League meetings and the last three on Merseyside.
In fact, City haven't won at Anfield since 2003 so it's been something of a bogey ground for them.
As usual with this Liverpool team, it makes far more sense to back them to win with both teams scoring. Five of their six home victories have been achieved without a clean sheet and taking that option - Liverpool/Yes in the Match Odds and Both teams to Score market - against free-scoring City is 3.05.
Both Teams To Score
The 1.56 is probably the shortest price of the season for 'Yes' and rightly so given that this pair are ranked first and second in the scoring charts.
In addition, BTTS had landed nine times in a row in this fixture before Liverpool ran out 3-0 winners at Anfield last season.
Over/Under 3.5 goals
The equation points in only one direction.... Aguero's return + two less than convincing goalkeepers in front of two iffy defences + history + Premier League's top home scorers v Premier League's top away scorers = goals.
Over 3.5 goals has landed in five of Liverpool's eight home games so the 2.70immediately has appeal.
Head-to-heads are interesting too as this is a fixture that has typically produced lots of goals. In fact, over 3.5 has landed in six of the last 10 while three of the other four produced three goals.
Klopp's first ever showdown with Guardiola produced six goals - four for the German's Borussia Dortmund outfit - so he'll hope to repeat that in their first Premier League meeting.
To Score
It always amazes me how often league position seems to override actual defensive record when it comes to goalscorer betting.
City have conceded 11 away goals this season and that's one more than Middlesbrough.
And yet, if Boro were coming to Anfield, the prices on, say, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane finding the net would be nearer even money.
Because it's City, that pair are on offer at over 2/1 and it just doesn't make sense.
Firmino scored both home and away against the Citizens last season and netted Liverpool's second in the 4-1 win over Stoke.
The Brazilian had a little dip in form before that romp against the Potters - due partly to having to accommodate Divock Origi's more central role - but he was back to his silky best against Stoke and should be a key figure on Saturday.
As well as his two goals against City last season, Firmino scored a double against Arsenal and another in the win over Man Utd so he can make a significant impact on the very big games.
Getting over 2/1 for him finding the net against a very modest City defence looks good business and Firmino can help the Reds sign off 2016 in style.
Ref watch
Craig Pawson gets the nod for this one even though Howard Webb suggested he should have been dropped for the Anfield clash due to the controversial red card he showed Jamie Vardy and his series of poor decisions in Man Utd's win at Crystal Palace.
On Boxing Day he flashed 11 yellows in Burnley's win over Middlesbrough and that followed eight bookings and the Vardy sending off in Stoke v Leicester.
He had a quieter day when last taking charge at Anfield, booking just one home player and two from Leicester in the Reds' 4-1 win.
Recommended Bets
Opta stat
Liverpool have never failed to score in their previous 19 home Premier League games against City.
