Skip to main content

Serie A Betting: Sardinian fireworks continue

By
“The Cagliari home and away trend has been good to us in recent weeks, and the prices available suggest that it has yet to be fully acknowledged. So we should keep trying to take advantage.”


Cagliari v Bologna
Sunday, 14:00
Bologna may be in form, and may have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five Serie A games, but I still don't see any real reason why Over 2.5 Goals are trading at 2.12 ahead of their trip to Sardinia.

Cagliari's home and away habits have been discussed in this column until we're all blue in the face, so suffice to say that recent evidence tells us that they play in a completely different way at home and on their travels and we can profit from that.

Away, Massimo Rastelli's side try to make themselves hard to beat and play it tight. Their last five away matches in Serie A have gone Under 2.5 Goals. At home, they're expansive and irresistible, meaning that every single one of their home games has gone Over 2.5 Goals.

And just because Bologna are strong defensively doesn't mean that their games produce goals: away from the Renato Dall'Ara, their last three matches have all produced at least three goals, while this is the ground at which Mattia Destro scored his only Serie A hat-trick and so there are happy memories on which he will hope to capitalise.

The bottom line is that the Cagliari home and away trend has been good to us in recent weeks, and the prices available suggest that it has yet to be fully acknowledged. So we should keep trying to take advantage.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals in Cagliari v Bologna @ 2.12

Sassuolo v Juventus
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Recognising the improvement in Sassuolo has also been good to us in 2017 so far, and while I'd love to recommend them at 7.60 to beat Max Allegri's team, I can't do so with a clear conscience.

Juventus were quite brilliant against Lazio last weekend, producing an outstanding opening 25 minutes and then holding onto what they had. They might have scored more, and they look full of goals at the moment.

And that's the case with Eusebio Di Francesco's Sassuolo as well: not only have they come into the New Year in form, winning their last two Serie A games, but they've scored goals as well. Seven in those two victories will have filled them full of confidence, and with Juventus always looking vulnerable defensively these days, I think that Sassuolo will score, but will more than likely be beaten.

That conclusion means that I'm surprised to see "Yes" to Both Teams to Score trading at around the even money mark, and that seems the best way of supporting Sassuolo here, seeing continuing improvement, without necessarily beating the Champions.

Recommended Bet: 'Yes' to Both Teams to Score @ 2.00

Crotone v Empoli
Sunday, 14:00
To round off a pretty uninspiring weekend, I'm not really sure why Crotone are trading as such resounding favourites to beat Empoli. Davide Nicola's team have improved, but they're still 11 points behind Empoli, and I don't think that the visitors should be as big as 3.25 to win.

Empoli were always going to take time to get used to a new coach and a new style at the start of the season and so it has proved. But they've now picked up 11 points in their last six games, one more than they managed in their opening 15 matches.

Empoli are horribly hard to break down, have more clean sheets than anyone in Serie A this season, and they're likely to pick up their 11th shutout against the team who've had the second fewest number of shots in this campaign.

Our problem lies with the fact that Empoli have the fewest, but I feel that they've improved enough to stay solid at one end, trouble Crotone at the other, and sneak away with a win in what is likely to be a dreadful game.

Recommended Bet: Back Empoli to beat Crotone @ 3.25


Labels:

Popular posts from this blog

Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund: In-form Germans will score again

By
Atletico Madrid  1.84  v Borussia Dortmund  5.10 ; The Draw  3.75 Tuesday 6 November, 20:00 Live on BT Sport Extra Borussia mark themselves out as contenders with Atletico thumping The reverse fixture produced one of the shock results in the last round of  Champions League  games, as Borussia Dortmund thrashed Atletico Madrid 4-0 at home. Dortmund's margin of victory against such an experienced European outfit, famed for their defensive solidity, was a major show of intent and marks them out as real contenders to win the competition. At the weekend they continued their fine form with a 1-0 win at  Wolfsburg , which stretched their unbeaten record this season (P17 W14 D3 L0). Lucien Favre's  side are now four points clear at the top of the Bundesliga, which is the same number that currently separates Atletico Madrid from the La Liga leaders Barcelona. A 1-1 draw at Leganes over the weekend, stretched Atletico's unbeaten run in their d...
Post a Comment
Read more

Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund: Eagles to build a wall in Berlin

By
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund Saturday 27 May, 19:00 Live on BT Sport ESPN Eintracht Frankfurt This time last season, Eintracht Frankfurt were  fighting for survival  in a Bundesliga playoff against second-tier side Nurnberg. Fast forward a year, and they are preparing for their first major cup final since 2006, having finished well clear of relegation trouble this term. Having steered the Eagles through that playoff against Nurnberg, coach  Niko Kovac  set about galvanising not just the squad, but the entire club. Working with sporting director Bruno Hubner and former Germany striker Fredi Bobic,  Kovac has injected new life into an organisation that was drifting. Youngsters like defender  Jesus Vallejo  and forward Ante Rebic have been brought in on loan to good effect, and astute pickups like holding midfielder Omar Mascarell and forward Branimir Hrgota have become effective cogs in the machine. Although Frankfurt have twice...
Read more

Real Madrid v Plzen: Back hosts' scoring struggles to continue

By
Real Madrid  1.09  v Plzen  40.00 ; The Draw  15.00 Tuesday 23 October, 20:00 Live on BT Sport ESPN Lopetegui on brink as Madrid malaise continues Ordinarily this match would almost be guaranteed to be a routine home win that had the potential to be embarrassing for the visitors, but these are not ordinary times at  Real Madrid . The Spanish giants are now without a win in their last five games (D1 L4), after losing 2-1 at home to Levante at the weekend.  Marcelo's  72nd minute goal broke a painful spell of 481 accumulated minutes without a goal. Unsurprisingly,  Julen Lopetegui  is under huge pressure and it would be no surprise if he were sacked before this match takes place on Tuesday. If he survives the game and it's aftermath, then Sunday's El Clasico could finish him off. Despite Real's abject form, it would still be a massive shock if they failed to beat Viktoria Plzen, who were thrashed 5-0 by Roma in their most recent...
Post a Comment
Read more