“The Cagliari home and away trend has been good to us in recent weeks, and the prices available suggest that it has yet to be fully acknowledged. So we should keep trying to take advantage.”
Sassuolo v Juventus
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Crotone v Empoli
Sunday, 14:00
Cagliari v Bologna
Sunday, 14:00
Sunday, 14:00
Bologna may be in form, and may have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five Serie A games, but I still don't see any real reason why Over 2.5 Goals are trading at 2.12 ahead of their trip to Sardinia.
Cagliari's home and away habits have been discussed in this column until we're all blue in the face, so suffice to say that recent evidence tells us that they play in a completely different way at home and on their travels and we can profit from that.
Away, Massimo Rastelli's side try to make themselves hard to beat and play it tight. Their last five away matches in Serie A have gone Under 2.5 Goals. At home, they're expansive and irresistible, meaning that every single one of their home games has gone Over 2.5 Goals.
And just because Bologna are strong defensively doesn't mean that their games produce goals: away from the Renato Dall'Ara, their last three matches have all produced at least three goals, while this is the ground at which Mattia Destro scored his only Serie A hat-trick and so there are happy memories on which he will hope to capitalise.
The bottom line is that the Cagliari home and away trend has been good to us in recent weeks, and the prices available suggest that it has yet to be fully acknowledged. So we should keep trying to take advantage.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals in Cagliari v Bologna @ 2.12
Sassuolo v Juventus
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Recognising the improvement in Sassuolo has also been good to us in 2017 so far, and while I'd love to recommend them at 7.60 to beat Max Allegri's team, I can't do so with a clear conscience.
Juventus were quite brilliant against Lazio last weekend, producing an outstanding opening 25 minutes and then holding onto what they had. They might have scored more, and they look full of goals at the moment.
And that's the case with Eusebio Di Francesco's Sassuolo as well: not only have they come into the New Year in form, winning their last two Serie A games, but they've scored goals as well. Seven in those two victories will have filled them full of confidence, and with Juventus always looking vulnerable defensively these days, I think that Sassuolo will score, but will more than likely be beaten.
That conclusion means that I'm surprised to see "Yes" to Both Teams to Score trading at around the even money mark, and that seems the best way of supporting Sassuolo here, seeing continuing improvement, without necessarily beating the Champions.
Recommended Bet: 'Yes' to Both Teams to Score @ 2.00
Crotone v Empoli
Sunday, 14:00
To round off a pretty uninspiring weekend, I'm not really sure why Crotone are trading as such resounding favourites to beat Empoli. Davide Nicola's team have improved, but they're still 11 points behind Empoli, and I don't think that the visitors should be as big as 3.25 to win.
Empoli were always going to take time to get used to a new coach and a new style at the start of the season and so it has proved. But they've now picked up 11 points in their last six games, one more than they managed in their opening 15 matches.
Empoli are horribly hard to break down, have more clean sheets than anyone in Serie A this season, and they're likely to pick up their 11th shutout against the team who've had the second fewest number of shots in this campaign.
Our problem lies with the fact that Empoli have the fewest, but I feel that they've improved enough to stay solid at one end, trouble Crotone at the other, and sneak away with a win in what is likely to be a dreadful game.
Recommended Bet: Back Empoli to beat Crotone @ 3.25
