Everton 1.72 v Huddersfield 6.00; The Draw [3.94]
(Significant Opta Stat: Huddersfield haven't scored a single goal on their travels in any competition (seven games) since their opening-day win at Crystal Palace.)
It's incredible how quickly we can change our minds about a football team. Prior to Wednesday night Everton were the worst team in the world, couldn't defend for toffee - no pun intended - and looked destined to be in a season-long relegation scrap.
They then thrashed West Ham 4-0 and later made it official that Sam Allardyce would be the permanent successor to Ronald Koeman. And with Huddersfield up next, everything is rosy in the garden again.
Okay, not quite everything as I know there are quite a lot of Everton fans not entirely doing backflips at the appointment of Big Sam. But it's worth remembering that just two jobs ago he was England manager, and in his only subsequent job he guided Crystal Palace to Premier League safety thanks to some miraculous results when all hope looked lost.
I get that the Toffees should be aiming higher than just avoiding relegation, but I genuinely believe they can start looking towards the top half of the table under Allardyce. It's probably gone slightly unnoticed that Everton are just two points behind Leicester in ninth.
Everton's recent defending had been woeful prior to the West Ham win, but you sense that was purely down to a lack of confidence and organisation rather than players just turning into bad defenders overnight. Big Sam will no doubt instil some confidence, and he'll most certainly get the Toffees defence organised.
It probably helps then that Allardyce's first game in charge will be at home to a Huddersfield team who have been extremely poor on the road this season. David Wagner's men haven't scored a single goal in any of their seven away games since their opening day win at Palace.
And as I said in midweek, the Terriers haven't exactly had it tough away from home either, and when they have faced decent sides - Liverpool and Arsenal - they lost by an aggregate scoreline of 8-0 that could quite easily have been double that. The Gunners should have had eight in midweek alone!
So expect a buoyed Everton side to make it two consecutive wins on Saturday afternoon, and expect them to do it quite easily too, just like they did against the Hammers. Huddersfield are arguably worse than West Ham on the road, so coming off that 5-0 defeat at Arsenal I find it really appealing that we can bet the Toffees to win by at least two goals at above 2/1.
Recommended Bets
Back Everton -1 to Win @ 3.10 (best bet)
Back Everton -1 to Win @ 3.10 (best bet)
Leicester 1.88 v Burnley 5.00; The Draw 3.70
(Significant Opta Stat: Leicester have only failed to score in one of their last 14 Premier League home games (Man City 0-2).)
Burnley continue to surprise this season, and away from home they have been absolutely fantastic. They are still being under-rated in the Match Odds market wherever they play, home or away.
It's a similar story to last term, when Burnley's odds to win at Turf Moor were often bigger than they ought to have been, simply because they were in the bottom half of the table and often playing at home following an away defeat.
But this season the Clarets have some solid home form and a sensational away record, which is why they are currently above Tottenham in the table and occupy a top six position. Yet they are available to back at 4/1 to win away at Leicester, having already won at the likes of Chelsea, Everton, Southampton, and drawing at Liverpool and Spurs.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing Sean Dyche's men to win again but I have to back Over 2.5 Goals here at what I believe is simply the wrong price.
Admittedly the Clarets have been involved in some low-scoring affairs away from home, but you can point to the fact that Everton were out of form, Southampton couldn't score for toffee on home soil, Spurs were just getting to grips with Wembley etc for those low-scoring games.
But ahead of this match I really fancy Leicester to get on the scoresheet, and probably a few times at least which obviously increases massively the chances of witnessing three goals or more in the match.
The Foxes are playing some decent football under new boss Claude Puel and go into this encounter on the back of an excellent 2-1 win over Tottenham on Tuesday night. They've also been involved in a 2-2 draw at Stoke and a 1-1 draw at West Ham, so they're both scoring and conceding goals, which is exactly what I expect from this exciting counter-attacking team.
At the King Power Stadium Leicester have failed only once in their last 14 matches to score, and that was in a recent 2-0 defeat to Man City so no shame there. I fully expect them to get on the scoresheet on Saturday, and given the Clarets' form away from home then Burnley are going to carry a big threat in front of goal also.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.28
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.28
Watford 5.20 v Tottenham 1.75; The Draw 4.10
(Significant Opta Stat: Spurs have now lost as many Premier League games this season (4) as they did in the entirety of last season.)
The above stat says it all. Tottenham have to stop the rot, especially away from home where they've now lost three on the spin. It's very untypical Tottenham form under Mauricio Pochettino; remember, they'd previously won six consecutive league games on their travels, scoring an amazing 25 goals in the process.
So I'm happy to play the role of the contrarian here, and wager that Spurs will attempt to get back to basics and keep it extremely tight at the back, meaning we'll witness two goals or fewer.
Having backed a low-scoring game when Watford hosted Manchester United in midweek I couldn't believe my eyes at how poor the Hornets were defensively. Ashley Young's first goal was littered with errors from a Watford point of view, and once the United man made it 2-0 with a stunning free-kick then you can ignore how the rest of the game went - Marco Silva's men were always going to chase and push players forward, United were very likely to score more.
So as long as there's no defensive lapses in concentration early in this game then I expect Watford to also keep it tight, and I'm sure Silva will set his men up with a priority to nullify Spurs over putting an onus on attacking.
Watford's two home games prior to the United defeat both went Under 2.5 Goals, and earlier in the season they played out a 0-0 draw at home to Brighton, so the possibility of a low-scoring affair is definitely on the cards at Vicarage Road between two sides that could cancel each other out.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.30
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.30
