In his latest look at the European football picture, James Horncastle assesses Zinedine Zidane's future at Real Madrid and two mouthwatering clashes in Ligue 1 and Serie A...
Zizou Flop
Managers have been sacked for a lot less at Real Madrid. Ordinarily a cup exit to Leganeswould be justification enough for Florentino Perez to issue a P45. But for now at least Zinedine Zidane remains in place. The Betfair Sportsbook have, however, put up a Next Real Madrid manager market - with Carlo Ancelotti, Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho all getting backing.
It seems all that's keeping the incumbent safe is status and the credit in the bank that comes with winning the Champions League in back-to-back years and five trophies in 2017. That said, the legendary Frenchman knows he is on thin ice.
If Perez and the board haven't already decided to make a change at the end of the season, the outcome of Madrid's Round of 16 Champions League tie with PSG in February is likely to be decisive. Zidane's mistakes are adding up.
On Wednesday he underestimated Leganes just as he did Numancia in the previous round. The likes of Gareth Bale, Cristiano Ronaldo, Toni Kroos and Marcelo weren't even in the squad. And so when Leganes got in front at the Bernabeu, Zidane had no one to turn to.
The defeat brought back memories of Alcorcon in 2009, a result Manuel Pellegrini never recovered from at least in terms of credibility. Zidane can at least count on the support of the players. But there is a sense he has been too indulgent with the team's superstars, playing them every week, even when devoid of form, and not pushing Perez hard enough to make changes in the summer and winter transfer windows.
The intensity has dropped at Madrid. Complacency has set in. And now they are drifting. It's the Champions League or bust. Which, incidentally, was exactly the case in 1997 when Madrid won la Septima.
This weekend they go to Valencia and Zidane needs to save face. The league has gone. That was already evident months ago. But fourth place is now in jeopardy. As if losing to Villarreal a fortnight ago wasn't enough, it must be of concern that Sevilla are now showing signs of revival under Vincenzo Montella.
Luckily for Madrid this weekend, Valencia are depleted at the back. Gabriel Paulista is suspended and it looks like his old Arsenal teammate Francis Coquelin may have to drop into defence to partner Ezequiel Garay. Accordingly the market isn't overly confident in Valencia. They're priced @ 5.00 to win.
Marseille's revival
There is a mouthwatering game in Ligue 1 on Sunday night when Marseille play Monaco at the Stade Velodrome. Hopefully it'll turn out to be every bit as good as Lyon-PSG was last weekend.
This promises to be a very competitive match-up indeed, which may come as a bit of a surprise if you look back at the most recent encounters between the two. Monaco have won the last three by an aggregate score of 14-5, including a 6-1 win at the start of the season.
However, Marseille have come an awful long way since then and are currently a point ahead of the French champions. They have won six in a row in all competitions and haven't conceded a goal in their last five matches. Rudi Garcia seems to have affected a change in mentality down by the Old Port and Marseille are now much more consistent.
Meanwhile Monaco haven't lost in the league since the end of November but suffered the disappointment of going out of the cup to Lyon in midweek. They have also drawn two of their last three and struggled to beat 10-man Metz last weekend.
It's a transition year for Monaco. Not all of their new signings have delivered. But they still have the firepower to bring down Marseille's rock solid defence and make this a very entertaining game.
Radamel Falcao is having another great season with 20 goals in all competitions. He is trading @ 2.26 to score.
Milan's crash test
Milan are making progress under Rino Gattuso. We're talking baby steps rather than great leaps forward and it doesn't change the fact that, unless Milan unexpectedly win the Europa League, they won't be in the Champions League next season.
Even so, it was encouraging to see them record back-to-back wins for the first time since September at the weekend. Admittedly those results have come against Crotone and Cagliari, and were far from pretty. In truth Milan were lucky not to concede a stoppage time equaliser at the weekend, which would have inevitably brought back memories of Gattuso's first game against Benevento. But broadly speaking his back-to-basics approach is bringing about gradual improvement.
Gattuso has gone back to the system Milan started the season with and stuck to it. The understanding between players still needs work. But it is getting better. And there is now a spirit about this team that makes Milan the image of their manager. Before Gattuso arrived Milan had never picked up as much as a point from a losing position. Well, evidently that has changed in the last fortnight as we've seen Milan come back from behind to draw in Florence and win in Sardinia.
The trouble is, just as Milan are generating a bit of momentum, they face Lazio this weekend. The Eagles are flying at the moment, even without top scorer Ciro Immobile who remains a doubt for Sunday's game at San Siro. A 4-1 defeat to Lazio in September exposed the limits of Milan's new team for the first time, sending them into a downward spiral that Gattuso has only recently started to arrest. For all the work he has done in making Milan a gutsier team, it's hard to see them stopping this Lazio side. The Biancocelesti can be found on the Exchange @ 2.98 to win.
