Manchester City v West Brom: Leaders can end attacking match in front

Man City v West Brom
Wednesday 31 January, 20:00

Sane out

City are still in the running for the quadruple after Sunday's 2-0 win at Cardiff in the FA Cup fourth round, although victory came at the cost of Leroy Sane's ankle injury that will sideline him for up to a month.

Pep Guardiola's side sit 12 points clear at the top of the Premier League and return to the Etihad bidding to extend their winning run at home to 11 matches in all competitions.

Sane joins fellow attacker Gabriel Jesus on the sidelines, plus Fabian Delph and Benjamin Mendy.

Turnaround

West Brom caused one of the upsets of the round in the FA Cup with their 3-2 win at Liverpool, which was an impressive performance amid all the VAR controversy.

That was further evidence of a turnaround under Alan Pardew, whose side are now undefeated in four matches and have lost only one of their last six.

Kieran Gibbs and Hal Robson-Kanu both had to go off in the first half at Liverpool, while Jonny Evans and Jake Livermore were carrying injuries by the end. All four are doubtful for this match and there is the further complication of transfer speculation around Evans and Livermore.

Free-scoring versus free hit

Only two teams have stopped City winning at home in 18 matches - Everton (1-1) in the first game of the season at the Etihad in August and Championship leaders Wolves (0-0) in the EFL Cup in October.

Apart from those two, only one other visiting team has restricted City to fewer than two goals and that was Feyenoord, who lost 1-0 in the Champions League in November. Since then, City have scored at least two goals in each of their last eight home games.

It is reasonable to work on the basis that City will score at least two goals and certainly the chances of West Brom keeping a clean sheet are slim, as they have conceded in five of their six away games under Pardew.

Given that few teams will take anything at the Etihad, Pardew might see this match as a free hit and aim for more of the attacking spirit his players showed at Anfield on Saturday.

He will be encouraged by the form of Jay Rodriguez, who scored twice against Liverpool and has now found the net in four of the seven matches since he returned to the starting line-up.

But there is obvious risk in attacking City and Pardew has had a sizeable number of heavy defeats away to the big six over the seasons, as well as some notable results such as Saturday's win.

High score likely

City lead the Premier League for games with over 2.5 goals (75%) and only Everton in the first match at the Etihad have kept them below that level at home.

As well as 92% over 2.5 goals at home, City are 67% over 3.5 goals - an incredible figureconsidering that only five other teams have reached that level for over 2.5 goals.

West Brom are on the low side for games with over 2.5 goals (33% overall), as you might expect for a team formerly managed by Tony Pulis.

Old habits die hard and even under Pardew the Baggies have had seven out of 10 under 2.5 goals in the Premier League.

City's figures often override those of their opponents, however, and a high score looks likely, though the odds are short at 1.37 for over 2.5 goals and 1.98 for over 3.5.

Bet on an open game

With goals almost guaranteed and Pardew likely to have an attacking outlook, the bet that appeals most is a combination of City win and both teams to score at 15/8 with Betfair Sportsbook.

That outcome has occurred in seven of City's 12 home games in the Premier League and in eight of their last 10 matches at the Etihad in all competitions, highlighting their own vulnerability at the back.

West Brom have scored in their last six matches and a massive shock result is not out of the question given their performance against Liverpool, but the strong likelihood is that City will benefit most from an open game.

Ref Watch

Bobby Madley has issued at least three yellow cards in nine of his 11 Premier League matches this season. He had five yellows (two of which became red) in each of his two City games (one of the league, one in the cup) and four and five in two West Brom matches.

Opta Stat
Sergio Aguero has had a hand in 11 goals in 10 Premier League appearances against West Brom (seven goals, four assists). The Argentine has scored in each of last five games at the Etihad in all competitions, netting nine goals in total including a hat-trick in his last appearance against Newcastle. Aguero is 5/2 to be first goalscorer and 4/7 to score anytime with Betfair Sportsbook.