Norwich 3.50 v Fulham 2.24; The Draw 3.65
We wagered on goals being scored the last time Norwich played at Carrow Road, and the game duly delivered with the Canaries running out 3-2 winners over Reading. It means that the last three games Norwich have played have witnessed a total of 14 goals, just shy of five per match on average.
That's not a bad starting point when you see a game that at first glance, has goals written all over it.
But betting is all about price, and whereas we could back Over 2.5 Goals involving Norwich last time at 2.20, the price on offer this weekend when Fulham come to town is just 1.77. In fact, it's Under 2.5 Goals that is trading at 2.20 this time, and at the prices, we have to make a case for the latter.
And it's pretty easy to make a case in all honesty. Prior to the 3-2 win over Reading, Norwich's last six home games read, 0-0, 1-2, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0. That's three goalless draws, an average of just one goal scored per match, and five out of six times Under 2.5 Goals would have paid out.
Fulham are obviously in fine form, and are very capable of going to Carrow Road and scoring two or three themselves, so that's obviously a concern, but part of their good recent run saw them record clean sheets against the likes of Wolves, Aston Villa, Nottm Forest, and Sheffield United. And looking at their last six away games, only half of them resulted in at least three goals being scored.
This is a typical example of a game where you instantly expect goals, but then the prices on offer force you to delve deeper. So we did, and the recent stats suggest backing a low-scoring game is the value call.
Home sick Tykes at the mercy of improving Robins
Barnsley 3.10 v Bristol City 2.54; The Draw 3.50
You can take plenty of positives at the end of a poor run of form when, actually, your side is still very much in the promotion picture.
That's exactly what Bristol City boss Lee Johnson has been saying for a few weeks now. The Robins had an excellent first half of the season and were on the verge of the automatic promotion places before having one eye on a League Cup semi-final against Manchester City appeared to derail them.
Prior to the first-leg defeat at the Etihad Stadium Bristol City lost three games on the spin, and they would then win just one of their subsequent eight games in all competitions, while in the Championship during that spell they took just seven points from a possible 30.
So it must be pleasing then for Robins fans that with just eight games of the regular season remaining, knowing their team will climb into the play-off positions - for a few hours at least - with a win over struggling Barnsley on Friday afternoon.
That's thanks in large to a mini revival with Johnson's men recording back-to-back home wins recently while also drawing away games at Leeds and Burton and holding high-flying Fulham to a 1-1 draw.
The Robins really shouldn't fear going to Oakwell. The Tykes have won just two of their last 24 games, and those victories were both away from home against two clubs below them in the table - Sunderland and Birmingham.
By pure coincidence Barnsley's last two league home wins were also against Sunderland and Birmingham respectively, and those victories were achieved on 26 August and 4 November last year! In other words, José Morais' men are a poor side in front on their won fans and they seemingly only have the ability to beat teams in and around them at the bottom of the table.
Blades' play-off hopes to be blunted at Griffin Park
Brentford 2.14 v Sheffield United 3.60; The Draw 3.60
I opposed Brentford the last time they played at Griffin Park on the basis that being stuck in mid table, with no chance of reaching the play-offs, they perhaps wouldn't be at their best against an in-form, promotion-chasing Middlesbrough.
I was wrong. The Bees were excellent on the day and were unlucky not to take all three points. They dominated possession and registered 31 shots at goal (seven on target) to Boro's 13. Dean Smith's men face a similar type game on Friday; seemingly with nothing to play for at home to a side still chasing a play-off place.
The difference this time is that the Blades aren't in the same form as Middlesbrough were two weeks ago. United have won just two of their last seven, and away from home they've won just one of their last six, losing four games without scoring while recording a goalless draw at Ipswich, meaning they've failed to find the net in five of their last six away matches.
Brentford's recent form is mixed admittedly, but they scored seven goals without reply in back-to-back wins recently - albeit against Sunderland and Birmingham - and on home soil they are usually difficult to beat, gaining some big scalps this season with wins over the likes of Aston Villa and Fulham in front of their own fans.
But it's that performance against Boro that really encourages me, and when you consider United's poor recent away form - especially their return in front of goal - then I'm happy to wager on a home win here at an odds-against price.
RECOMMENDED BETS
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 in Norwich v Fulham
Back Bristol City @ 2.54 to beat Barnsley (best bet)
Back Brentford @ 2.14 to beat Sheffield United
