Bournemouth v Crystal Palace: Eagles a cracking price to win on the road again

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace
Monday 1 October, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Cherries hoping to bounce back

Bournemouth have made a great start to the season so it was a little surprising to hear Eddie Howe say that his side must get back to basics after last week's defeat at Burnley.

True, it was a big defeat, the 4-0 scoreline equalling their worst Premier League loss, but prior to that game the Cherries had done little wrong in claiming 10 points from their opening five games and last week's defeat to the Clarets can easily be forgiven from a form perspective.

Having said that, conceding four goals to a team looking for their first league win of the season was disappointing, and Howe's men also conceded twice in a midweek EFL Cup win over Blackburn, so perhaps the Bournemouth boss is far more concerned about his team's defending than he is with his attack.

The Cherries can move up level with Watford in sixth with a victory though they would have to do something they have yet to achieve in the Premier League, and that is beat Crystal Palace at Dean Court

Palace strong on the road

The Eagles have won four times this season in league and EFL cup competitions, all four of those victories being achieved away from home without conceding a single goal. Their only defeat on the road was a narrow 2-1 reversal at Watford where they performed with credit and should easily have gone one or two goals up before the Hornets took control.

So it's easy to come to the conclusion that this current Crystal Palace team is better suited to playing away from home than they are at Selhurst Park where they are yet to win this season.

That comes as no surprise given you generally get more opportunities to counter attackaway from home, and Palace have two men who can be superb in such games. Andros Townsend's vision and passing ability is exceptional, while Wilfried Zaha's speed and all-round class makes him one of the division's most difficult players to defend against.

Palace's home form needs to be addressed but Roy Hodgson has a squad of players more than capable of finishing in the top half of the table this season.

Away team simply too big to ignore

It's not very often that I see a price and instantly think it looks too good to be true - and we all know what that generally means - but I have to admit to being gobsmacked at seeing Crystal Palace priced up at 3.50 to win this game.

I firmly believe that Hodgson's men are the better side, they have won four away games this season by an aggregate scoreline of 0-7, they have never lost to Bournemouth in the Premier League at Dean Court, and their two star men - Zaha and Townsend - are fit to play.

The Cherries are trading as the 2.30 favourites, and while it's understandable that home advantage has an influence on the market, I often believe that the market swings too much in favour of a home side in games where there is very little to chose between the teams in terms of ability.

The Draw can also be backed at 3.50 but I'm not about to suggest you get that option on side either. I'm very confident that if these two sides met three times under the exact same circumstances that they will meet on Monday night, then Palace would win at least one of those three matches.

If you agree with me then you will know exactly why and where to place your money in the Match Odds market.

Goals should flow in entertaining affair

The away win is going to be my main bet in this game but I'll also be surprised if we don't witness quite a few goals.

Admittedly Palace haven't shipped many away from home this term - just two in five games and none when they've won - but at Dean Court Bournemouth are often involved in extremely entertaining affairs. Their last four on home soil for example have finished 2-2, 3-0, 4-2, and 3-2. That's 18 goals in four games at an average of 4.5 per game.

Bournemouth's 4-4-2 style, with the excellent Callum Wilson and Josh King in attack, is always a threat but it can also suit strong counter-attacking sides, which should be right up Palace's street.

Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.83 so let's take a punt on the slightly more adventurous Over 3.5 Goals option at 3.10

Same Game Multi

As regular readers will know I'm an all eggs in one basket type of punter - I often struggle with the psychology of knowing that backing a winner guarantees you back a loser - so I have to look at the Anytime Scorer market combined with the Match Odds.

The obvious starting point is Zaha, who can be backed at 9/5 to score anytime but that price can be boosted to 5/1 on the Same Game Multi combined with a Palace win.

My preference though - given I fancy plenty of goals in this match - is to back Wilson to score with a Palace win at 17/1, and King to score with a Palace win at just over 20/1.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Crystal Palace @ 3.50 to beat Bournemouth

Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.10