Qarabag v Arsenal: Don't expect Gunners to be involved in a shootout

Qarabag v Arsenal
Thursday 04 October, 17:55
Live on BT Sport Extra

Qarabag can lean on European experience

Qarabag have rubbed shoulders with some of the strongest teams in Europe in recent seasons, and their domination of football in Azerbaijan (they have won the last five league titles) means they have had regular access to continental competition. Last season, they twice held Atletico Madrid to draws, results that ultimately saw Diego Simeone's side drop into the Europa League. Chelsea and Roma also provided testing opposition. In this season's Champions League qualifiers, Qarabag were edged out by BATE Borisov, but they then saw off a sturdy Sheriff side 3-1 on aggregate to reach the UEL group phase.

Qarabag had a tough start on Matchday One, losing 2-0 in Portugal against Sporting. They pushed the Lions hard in the Portuguese capital, with the points only really being secured with a couple of minutes of normal time remaining. That was their only failure to win in their last six matches in all competitions, and they are once again top of their domestic league.

Qarabag aren't likely to make too many changes from Matchday One, with Spaniard Dani Quintana their only major absentee.

Emery beginning to make his mark

Arsenal fans are starting to see why former PSG and Sevilla boss Unai Emery could be one of the Gunners' most important signings of the 21st century. His passion on the touchline has caught the eye, as have his constant demands for his players to keep their tactical shape. While Emery's predecessor Arsene Wenger was at times criticised for being tactically inflexible and not caring too much about the negating the strengths of the opposition, Emery's obsession with detail and his willingness to adapt has been welcomed.

Of course, we shouldn't decry Wenger and his extraordinary reign at Arsenal too much, and Emery has been left a talented squad of players which he is making the most of. The Gunners have won their last seven matches in all competitions, including a 4-2 win over Ukrainian side Vorskla on Matchday One.

Armenian Henrikh Mkhitaryan won't travel to Azerbaijan because of safety concerns, Bernd Leno will start in goal after making his Premier League debut in the weekend's win over Watford, and there may be an opportunity for some fringe players to get some minutes.

Qarabag to keep it tight

Arsenal are trading at 1.52 here to win the match, and while that makes sense given their recent winning run, it gives us some scope if we think Qarabag will give them a tough test.

Qarabag held Atletico twice last season, and only lost to Roma by the odd goal in both Italy and Azerbaijan. Arsenal are unlikely to field their best side, and if you look at Emery's Europa League work with Sevilla, most of his best results came on home soil.

We can use the Asian Handicap to give Qarabag a goal start at [2.07], and I think that's worth considering.

Don't expect a thriller

Seven of Qarabag's nine European matches this season have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land, and that outcome is odds-against here at 2.06.

You could also back No in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.92. That bet has paid out in all but one of Qarabag's games this term in the Champions League and Europa League.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back No in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.92