QPR v Aston Villa: Underrated Rangers worth supporting

QPR v Aston Villa
Friday October 26, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

QPR pierce the top-half

QPR moved into the top half of the Championship table with their third win in four as they convincingly saw off Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 at Loftus Road on Tuesday. Tomer Hemednodded Rangers ahead before half-time before Luke Freeman doubled the lead and substitute Nahki Wells confirmed victory late on.

Steve McClaren's men enjoyed just 37% of the ball but were by far the more threatening in possession. Even so, young goalkeeper Joe Lumley made a number of smart saves to keep a third clean sheet in four for the R's, as well as sixth shutout in 10 outings since the hosts started with a four-match losing streak.

McClaren named an unchanged team on Tuesday night but could be forced into a couple of changes as the Londoners prepare for a third Championship clash in six days. Veteran Geoff Cameron may be replaced in the middle of the park by Josh Scowen and Wells is pushing for a recall to the starting XI.

Smith suffers first Aston Villa loss

New Aston Villa head coach Dean Smith suffered his first defeat as Claret & Blue boss in midweek as a Jordan Rhodes double saw Norwich overturn a one-goal deficit and defeat the Second City giants 2-1 at Carrow Road. Captain James Chester had given Villa the lead with their only on-target effort.

On-loan striker Tammy Abraham hit the post but had to be withdrawn before the hour mark due to a head injury, whilst substitute Anwar El Ghazi had an effort cleared off the line with the scores level. Despite generating just 0.47 Expected Goals, the Villa boss was adamant his team didn't deserve to lose in Norfolk.

Abraham is now a doubt for Friday's fixture with Scott Hogan and Jonathan Kodjia both potential options to start in attack. Elsewhere, Albert Adomah is unavailable after picking up a knee complaint at Norwich, but Yannick Bolasie is available after being rested in midweek and John McGinn is back from a ban.

Underrated Rangers worth siding with

No Championship club has collected more points than QPR (20) over their past 10 matches with Rangers returning W6-D2-L2 since kicking off their campaign with a record-breaking four defeats from four. That recent spell of positivity includes 10 points from a possible 15 (W3-D1-L1) at their Loftus Road base.

The Hoops have been chalked up as 2.78 shots to earn victory on Friday night. Considering the hosts hold a 50% win rate (W15-D6-L9) in West London since the start of last season, the R's appear underrated. Indeed, QPR are also returning positive xG and shot numbers across the current campaign.

Aston Villa 2.80 arrive on the back of two triumphs in 12 (W2-D6-L4) and the Claret & Blue are winless on their travels since the opening weekend (W1-D3-L3). The guests havewon just 11/30 (37%) of their away outings since the beginning of 2017/18 and are posting negative performance data this term.

I'm mindful of potential improvement from within the Villa ranks under Smith but it's difficult to ignore the large price available on Rangers here and so a punt on QPR with a +0/0.50start on the Asian Handicap is recommended at 1.70. This selection would see us make money should the R's avoid defeat.

Stats suggest a low-scoring contest

QPR's improvements have come alongside a more organised and meaner defence. Steve McClaren's men have leaked fewer than two goals in nine of their past 10 matches, whilst conceding an average of just 0.85 xG per-game. The R's also have faced just 4.80 shots in the box across their last 10 in that same sample.

Nevertheless, Rangers are far from free-scoring. The capital club have notched more than a solitary strike in only four of their 14 fixtures under McClaren, leading to eight successful Under 2.5 Goals 1.79 selections. Seven of those low-scoring games arrived in their last 10, with four featuring no more than one goal.

Twelve of Aston Villa's opening 14 encounters have paid out in the Both Teams To Score1.81, although only eight (57%) of those encounters broke the Over 2.5 Goals barrier. The Claret & Blue have registered a goal in all of their Championship contests despite averaging just 0.56 xG from open play.

With 12 (54%) of Villa's 22 goals arriving via set-pieces or own goals, there's enough evidence against supporting a goal-heavy game here.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back QPR +0/0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 in QPR v Aston Villa

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.79 in QPR v Aston Villa