Tottenham v Man City: Goals likely but don't rule out a home win at a price

Tottenham v Manchester City
Monday 29 October, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

'Tired' Tottenham deserve more credit

Despite losing twice already in the Premier League this season Tottenham go into Monday night's mouthwatering game knowing that a victory will take them above red-hot title favourites Manchester City.

That's some incentive, but it also hits home that Spurs - who have been criticised in some quarters for not making any summer signings as well as being accused of 'looking tired', particularly Harry Kane, in recent weeks - can't exactly be doing a lot wrong if winning their next league game means they go above 'sublime' City.

True, Mauricio Pochettino's men haven't been particularly impressive in some of their recent wins but they go into Monday night's game on the back of four straight league victories, three of which were achieved without conceding, and they should also welcome back Dele Alli in a starting line-up that will include Christian Eriksen, the pair 'freshend-up' by having a few weeks off due to injury.

Spurs deserve credit. They've played more games away from home than any other Premier League side this term, Pochettino has had a mini injury crisis to deal with, and yet going into the weekend there was a mathematical chance that they could conclude it by being top of the table. So much for being tired.

Squad depth a huge advantage for Guardiola

Following Liveprool's win over Cardiff on Saturday only a win, by any scoreline, for Man City at Wembley will take them back to the summit of the Premier League table given their far superior, and extremely impressive, goal difference.

The Citizens remain unbeaten in the league this term and on the evidence of what we've seen so far they look more than capable of matching last season's three-figure goals and points tally.

The advantage that Pep Guardiola has over not just Pochettino, but over all the Premier League managers barring Jurgen Klopp perhaps, is that he can make three or four changes to his starting XI from game-to-game yet City never look any weaker.

If it's not Aymeric Laporte it's Vincent Kompany, if it's not David Silva it's Riyad Mahrez, if Raheem Sterling or Sergio Aguero are out then Leroy Sane or Gabriel Jesus come in, and then of course there's the super reliable Fernandinho, and arguably City's player of the season so far Bernardo Silva to name just two more.

The bad news for Tottenham on Monday night is that Guardiola has all of these players fit and available to play, though away from home City have won just 50% of their league matches this term, drawing 1-1 with Wolves and failing to score against Liverpool last time.

Hosts a big price to triumph in a fixture they do well in

We should all be licking our lips at the prospect of this match as it pits together two hugely talented sides capable of comfortably beating any team in the country on their day.

This is just one reason why I'm fascinated by the Match Odds. Spurs, with home advantage, can be backed at a huge-looking 4.90, while City are trading at just 1.76 and the Draw at 4.30. I have to disagree with these odds.

Of course City deserve to be favourites and no-one will be in the least bit surprised if they win the game, but a relatively full-strength Spurs side - should Alli and Eriksen start - will present plenty of problems of their own.

It's worth pointing out that Tottenham have defeated full-strength Man City teams in London in two of their last three meetings (4-1 and 2-0), and their last six encounters (home and away) reads W3-D1-L2 in Spurs' favour. It's not my most confident bet of the match, but at the prices I simply can't let the home side go un-backed.

Laying City to win in the Match Odds at around 1.76, and therefore getting a Tottenham win or a draw on your side will reward you at odds of around 2.30 if successful.

No surprise to see goals fancied

Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at just 1.64, while the Over 3.5 Goals option is trading at 2.64. We shouldn't be surprised.

It's not just the last two or three encounters that these two great sides have produced goals, it stretches quite far back. Take the last 14 meetings for example; six goals were scored three times, five goals three times, and four goals three times. In total, 59 goals were scored in those 14 matches at an average of 4.2 per game.

At home that average drops slightly; the last seven meetings between Spurs and Man City at either White Hart Lane or Wembley have produced a total of 28 goals at an average of exactly four per game.

Man City have been as prolific as ever this season and look like they're capable of scoring at least two or three in every game they play, regardless of the opposition. It's less so for Tottenham, but don't be surprised at all if they put in a much improved performance on Monday night and create just as many chances as their opponents.

And with the likes of Kane, Aguero, Silva (x2), Eriksen, De Bruyne and Alli on the pitch, it seems plain daft to think that chances won't be turned into goals. Back at least four to be scored at 2.64.

Add Cards and Corners to your Same Game Multi

A lot has been said about Wembley hosting another NFL match just 24 hours before Monday night's game and it seems almost inevitable that the pitch - although likely to be looking as good as ever prior to kick-off - won't cut up at some point.

A slightly bobbly pitch, possibly on a wet surface, usually increases the chances of errors and cards being shown from my experience and I'm happy to add Over 40 Points (Evens in the Bookings Odds market) to my Same Game Multi wager along with Over 10.5 Corners, for a combined price just norther of 11/4.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.64 (best bet)

Back Tottenham to Win @ 4.90