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Aston Villa v Bolton: Shot-shy Trotters to fall short

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Aston Villa v Bolton
Friday November 2, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa suffer consecutive defeats

Aston Villa were left frustrated at Loftus Road last Friday night as the Claret & Blue couldn't find a way past QPR. Dean Smith's side fell to their second successive defeat, going down 1-0 in the capital, despite dominating possession and producing an encouragingly attacking performance.
Jack Grealish came closest to scoring for the Villans, hitting the post with a long-range free-kick, whilst Tammy Abraham deflected a free-kick wide and Yannick Bolasie was also denied as Villa sought an equaliser. Grealish and John McGinn fired in efforts from distance but the Second City were unable to find a leveller.
Birkir Bjarnason's unlikely to be involved having hobbled off with a groin complaint - Glenn Whelan and Conor Hourihane are vying for recalls in central midfield. Elsewhere, Albert Adomah is rated doubtful but Bolasie is pushing for a start after a solid cameo against QPR off the bench.

Bolton boss feeling the heat

Bolton boss Phil Parkinson accepts the pressure is mounting after his side were jeered off after losing at home to fellow strugglers Hull last Saturday. The Trotters rarely penetrated the visitors' back-line, with Clayton Donaldson missing their only guilt-edged chance when through on goal.
Parkinson shifted formation to 3-4-1-2 and made seven changes in personnel, but his team struggled to find attacking fluency in a flat game devoid of quality. The hosts managed only three on-target efforts and the Wanderers' supremo accepted his charges must do more in the final-third if they're to pick up results.
Sammy Ameobi and Stephen Ireland returned to training this week but Friday could come too soon for the pair, although Jason Lowe is back from a ban. The visitors are expected to continue with their new-look three-man defensive system, instead of their more accustomed 4-2-3-1.

Match Odds

Aston Villa 1.46 arrive on the back of two triumphs in 13 (W2-D6-L5) and the Claret & Blue have won just once in their last seven outings. However, there were encouraging signs from Villa's effort at QPR and the host have clinched 17/30 (57%) victories on home soil since the start of last season.
Bolton 8.40 collected 10 of their 16 points in their first four matches and were third in the Championship table at that point. But 10 games later, they find themselves falling towards the division's bottom three having W1-D3-L7 since.
Most alarming for Trotters supporters is their lack of final-third threat. Wanderers have scored just twice in their past eight Championship encounters - an average of one goal every six hours - and Phil Parkinson's posse have tabled just 0.33 Expected Goals from open play per-game this term.
With that in mind, plus the presumption that Aston Villa will monopolise possession on Friday night, I'm happy to support the hosts in the Win To Nil market at 2.26. Twelve of Bolton's 15 away defeats since the beginning of 2017/18 have seen the guests fail to trouble the scoresheet.

Oppose Friday night goals

Under 2.5 Goals 2.06 has been chalked up as the outside in the Over/Under market on Friday night and appeals considering it's proven profitable in 21/30 (70%) of Bolton's away days since they returned to the Championship.
This fixture also pits together two of the bottom-three teams for total Expected Goals from open play average, with Aston Villa seeing just 1.28 per-game, and Bolton's matches featuring a divisional-low 1.19 per-game.
RECOMMENDED BETS
Back Aston Villa to win to nil @ 2.26 in Aston Villa v Bolton 
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.06 in Aston Villa v Bolton

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