Bournemouth v Manchester United
Saturday 3 November 2018, 12:30
Live on BT
Saturday 3 November 2018, 12:30
Live on BT
High-flying Cherries on a roll
Following a 2-1 victory at home to Norwich on Tuesday night, with a somewhat weakened side, Bournemouth have reached the last-eight of the Carabao Cup for the second season in-a-row (where they've been drawn away to Chelsea for the second season in-a-row) and following their straightforward 3-0 win at Craven Cottage on Saturday, they've now won eight of their last 12 Premier League games and they've cemented their position in sixth place in the table.
The Cherries are unbeaten at the Vitality Stadium in their last nine matches in all competitions and they'll be looking to keep their fourth clean sheet in-a-row in the Premier League for the very first time on Saturday. Has there ever been a better time to be a Bournemouth fan?
The bad news, if indeed there is any, is that they don't have a great record against Saturday's opponents, Manchester United. Indeed, it was United, back in April, that were the last team to win at the Vitality and having won their first game against the Red Devils in the Premier League in December 2015, Bournemouth have lost four of their last five against them. A 1-1 draw at Old Trafford in the 2016/17 season being the only reprieve.
Unconvincing United on the road to recovery
After a very shaky start to their Premier League season, which saw the Red Devils lose two of their first three fixtures - away at Brighton and 3-0 at home to Spurs - the 'United in big trouble' narrative is starting to lose a bit of oxygen and they've lost just one of their last seven Premier League fixtures - away to West Ham at the end of September.
All is far from rosy in the Mourinho camp though. Defeat in the Carabao Cup at home to Derby, along with an uninspiring 0-0 draw with Valencia and a defeat to Juventus in the Champions League at Old Trafford have been disappointing results but since coming back to win 3-2 at home to a dire Newcastle team, having been 2-0 down after 10 minutes on a day rumours were rife that Mourinho was getting the boot, regardless of the result, United are starting to fight for each-other and slowly but surely they're improving.
They weren't entirely convincing on Sunday at home to Everton but they ground out a result (won 2-1), with Anthony Martial finding the net for a third Premier League game in-a-row, and they were unlucky not to get all three points at Stamford Bridge two weeks ago when Ross Barkley levelled the game 2-2 in injury time.
There's no denying that they're going in the right direction but it's very easy to pick holes in their performances and their defence is not the only negative. Star striker, Romelu Lukaku, isn't firing at all and he probably won't even make the starting line-up again and their reliance on World Cup winner, Paul Pogba, is huge.
Bournemouth the play with draw insurance
Bournemouth can lose Saturday's tie 3-0 and they'll still be above United in the table. After ten games last season, the Cherries had just seven points, 12 fewer than their current total after ten, and they're not just outscoring their opponents, they're also conceding fewer. Bournemouth's start to the season has been considerably better than last season's but United's has been substantially worse, especially at the back.
After ten games last season United had kept eight clean sheets, this season they've kept just one and after ten games last season they'd conceded just four goals, this season they've let in 17! The Red Devils first ten games yielded 23 points last season, this time around they've accumulated 17.
Both sides are at fascinating junctures. A win for the Cherries will maintain momentum and if they can keep things tight at the back again, belief in Eddie Howe's more pragmatic approach will strengthen. In contrast, United's tentative recovery feels fragile and Mourinho isn't out of the woods yet. He's drifted from the long odds-on he was matched at to be the Next Manger to Leave but with Manchester City away next up on the fixture list a victory here would be a huge fillip.
Historic form between the two sides is arguably the only way a solid case can be made for the visitors and whether they're advancing fast enough to be backed here at just a shade of odds-against is highly debatable.
On current form, Bournemouth are arguably the slightly stronger side and it's tempting to back them to win at almost 3/1 in the outright market but taking the insurance of money back in the Draw no Bet market makes sense.
Caution advised as Howe keeps things tight
With 70% of Bournemouth's matches and 80% of United's producing at least three goals, the long odds-on for Over 2 ½ Goals looks more than justified looking at the stats. United have scored in each of their last five on the road and they've scored at least two in each of their last three games so even with Lukaku misfiring, they're still finding the net, but will that continue unabated on Saturday?
Even though they've scored 19 times already (seven times more than ever before at this stage in the Premier League), Eddie Howe's Bournemouth are the stingiest they've ever been at the back and more than five hours of football have been played since the Cherries last conceded in the Premier League. The goals might not be quite as free-flowing as the stats and markets suggest.
Same Game Multi
If you fancy combining two or more scenarios to build a bet that pays a bit more, click on the Same Game Multi tab at the top of the Sportsbook market and pick two or more selections to build a wager. For example, Bournemouth to win and the red-hot Callum Wilson to score pays £6.96 for a £1 stake. Wilson has now scored five from ten in the Premier league so he's the most likely to bag one for the Cherries but if you fancy goals and a tighter affair, what about Wilson to score, Martial to score and the game to end as draw? That pays a very juicy £40.42 for £1 stake.
RECOMMENDED BETS
3 pts Bournemouth Draw No Bet @ 2.90
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