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European Football Preview: Can Juve be caught napping?

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Super Pav

Juventus v Cagliari
Saturday, 19:30
Live on Eleven Sports 2
On paper, Juventus' encounter with Cagliari this weekend looks straightforward enough. But as we saw against Genoa there is a chance the Old Lady's head will be turned by the visit of Manchester United in midweek.
Massimiliano Allegri has recently got angry with his players for "leaving games" early and last weekend's win in Empoli was unconvincing. Juventus fell behind and looked tired. In the end a soft penalty and a world class strike from Cristiano Ronaldo turned the game around in the second half. The Bianconeri got away with it and always have that extra club in the golf bag.
Cagliari coach Rolando Maran will be realistic about his chances of flying back to Sardinia with a positive result. But the tendency of Juventus to think they can afford to take their foot off the accelerator mixed with occasional lapses in concentration are straws worth clutching at.
Cagliari also appear well equipped to take advantage of one of the slight weaknesses in this Juventus team; defending crosses into the box. Leonardo Bonucci has been caught out more than once in this regard and it just so happens he is going up against one of the best headers of a ball in the world this weekend.
Cagliari striker Leonardo Pavoletti is a specialist when it comes to burying balls into the penalty area with his bonce. Nineteen of his 40 goals in Serie A have come with his head and only Ronaldo has scored more in the last three years. Cagliari's record signing is also in top form, having found the net in each of his last three appearances. Back him to score @5.40.

Casualty at BVB

Wolfburg v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30
Still undefeated and top of the Bundesliga, Dortmund look as good as they were towards the end of the Thomas Tuchel era under Lucien Favre. Impressive in the Champions League where the Black and Yellows inflicted the heaviest defeat of Diego Simeone's time as coach of Atletico Madrid, the question is can they sustain this exciting level of performance through the winter?
This period in particular will tell us a lot about Dortmund's ability to endure as there is a full-on injury crisis at Signal Iduna Park. Favre has lost his entire first choice backline. Marcel Schmelzer has bruising on the bone, Akanji's hip has been giving him gip since the last international break, Lukasz Piszczek did his knee in last weekend's draw with Hertha Berlin, a game which claimed another casualty in Abou Diallo. He gestured to the bench that he couldn't continue after feeling a twinge in his adductors.
"The signals are not good," Favre said. Away at Wolfsburg on Saturday, their opponents must be thinking they are catching Dortmund at the right time. Take the VWs to get something out of this one on Double Chance @ 2.00.

Europa League play-off

Sampdoria v Torino
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Eleven Sports 2
Samp had the best defence in Europe until last weekend's 3-2 defeat to Milan when they conceded more goals in 90 minutes than in the preceding nine games combined. Marco Giampaolo is a master at organising his team without the ball and there is growing excitement that Joachim Andersen, the young Danish centre-back, could fetch the sort of offers Milan Skriniar attracted 18 months ago.
Great to watch, as you'd expect given Giampaolo's reputation as one of Maurizio Sarri's acolytes, Samp have been clinical in front of goal this season. Their conversion rate [32%] is the highest in the league. Forty four shots have yielded 14 goals and while it's fantastic that the team's aim is true, there is concern about how sustainable it is long-term. The midfielders in particular could do with creating more and chipping in with a few goals themselves.
That said Samp look like they have the mentality to go the distance and qualify for the Europa League this season. Torino are one of their main rivals for that objective but continue to blow hot and cold under Walter Mazzarri who, after encouraging signs in pre-season, has struggled to reignite the goalscoring firepower within Andrea Belotti. Take Samp to win @2.70. Marassi has always been a fortress under Giampaolo. 
RECOMMENDED BETS
Back Pavoletti to score @ 5.40 inJuventus v Cagliari
Back Wolfsburg Double Chance @ 2.00
Take Sampdoria to beat Torino @ 2.70

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