Italy v Republic of Ireland
Wednesday June 22, 20:00
Live on ITV
Wednesday June 22, 20:00
Live on ITV
With Italy breezing through to the next round already, it's all about jockeying for position in Group E. Italy are certain of first place because of their head-to-head record against Belgium, so will rotate the squad completely.
That explains the 2.50 around about Italy winning the game. That seems a massive price given the relative abilities of both sides, and will be one worth taking, but only once the team news is out.
Even if Antonio Conte does change the entire starting XI, Italy's second team may still win. If the Azzurri drift in the Match Odds market on the back of team changes, get on.
Italy were less impressive against Sweden than they had been with Belgium, but they did enough to land us a couple of bets, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a slightly more liberated performance here.
Conte has always been capable of switching from a tight, throttling set up to an open one (his Juve were only OCCASIONALLY dull to watch) and I wouldn't be surprised to see a counter attacking masterclass here.
The Republic of Ireland were steamrollered by Belgium, with the life of their challenge seemingly fading the moment that Sweden equalised in their opening game. They must win this one, will have to try and get at Italy, and the longer it doesn't work, the more risks they'll take.
That plays into Italy's hands, and in the absence of Claudio Marchisio, I feel that Marco Parolo could have a key role. Parolo is a really good penalty area finisher in the style of a young David Platt, and he came close against Sweden.
He's worth a bet to finish off one of Italy's counter attacks, assuming he plays, but Antonio Candreva is injured. Watch out for team news before placing the bet as Parolo may be rested.
In a tournament light on goals, the price for Over 2.5 goals is inevitably inflated, and with the likelihood of a more open approach by the Irish, the Overs are too big here at 2.56.
I stated in my Group E Preview that I felt Ireland could be good enough to qualify and even finish second in the Group, while Italy would struggle. I was wrong.
My bet on Italy's Tournament Goals finishing Under 5.5 is still running, but three goals and I'm done. They may even arrive at that total here against an Irish side who started the tournament so well but haven't quite had the required quality so far. Gallant, but falling short. As a Welsh rugby fan, I sympathise.
Italy will march on, and as the tournament moves on, they're looking more and more like the team that everyone wants to avoid.
Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals in Italy v Republic of Ireland @ 2.56
Marco Parolo to score @ 5.80
Italy to win (depending on team news) @ 2.50
